What to Know
- Bitcoin’s monthly RSI, Chande Momentum Oscillator, and 50-month moving average have aligned, reviving a technical pattern linked to previous macro bottoms.
- Ali highlighted historical signals from 2015, 2019, and 2022, each preceding major Bitcoin rallies despite prices briefly falling below trigger levels.
- On-chain models still indicate possible downside toward $40,000 to $50,000, while Bitcoin’s long-term percentage gains have moderated across successive cycles.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified a recurring Bitcoin chart pattern that previously marked the beginning of every major bull cycle. In a post on X, Ali highlighted three long-term technical indicators that have aligned once again, suggesting Bitcoin has entered another historically significant accumulation zone despite mixed signals from on-chain valuation models.
Ali explained that Bitcoin’s monthly Relative Strength Index, Chande Momentum Oscillator, and 50-month Simple Moving Average have returned to levels that matched previous market bottoms. While on-chain models still allow room for another decline, he argued the technical structure now presents a favorable long-term risk-to-reward setup for spot investors.
Bitcoin recently corrected to around $58,000 before stabilizing near its 50-month moving average. Meanwhile, the monthly RSI dropped to roughly 43.65 while the Chande Momentum Oscillator declined to approximately -71. According to Ali, those readings have consistently appeared near the end of previous bear market cycles.
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Bitcoin repeats technical setup seen before major recoveries
According to Ali, the first occurrence of this technical pattern appeared in March 2015 when Bitcoin traded near $235. Although the asset later declined to an absolute low of $162, the signal marked the beginning of an approximately 8,302% rally. Moreover, the same setup returned in January 2019 with Bitcoin trading around $3,333. That signal emerged shortly above the cycle low of $3,124 before Bitcoin advanced roughly 1,911% during the following bull market.
Additionally, the technical cluster appeared again in December 2022 while Bitcoin traded near $16,270, slightly above the market bottom around $15,473. Bitcoin subsequently climbed about 675% before reaching its next cycle peak. However, Ali acknowledged that technical analysis and on-chain valuation models currently present different outlooks. He pointed to the Market Value to Realized Value ratio and the Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed model, both of which indicate Bitcoin could still revisit the $40,000 to $50,000 range before establishing a final cycle bottom.
Bitcoin’s gains have moderated across market cycles
Besides the recurring technical pattern, the chart also shows that Bitcoin‘s percentage gains have declined with each successive cycle. Bitcoin rallied more than 8,300% following the 2015 signal, approximately 1,911% after the 2019 setup, and about 675% after the 2022 pattern. Those smaller returns reflect Bitcoin’s expanding market capitalization and the increasing capital required to sustain larger price advances.
Ali argued that the latest technical alignment represents another historically significant accumulation zone rather than confirmation of Bitcoin’s absolute market bottom. While on-chain valuation models still leave room for additional downside, he noted that the recurring combination of the monthly RSI, Chande Momentum Oscillator, and the 50-month moving average has repeatedly preceded Bitcoin’s strongest long-term recoveries.
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The post Analyst Says Bitcoin Macro Bottom Pattern Has Returned as Historic Buy Signal Reappears appeared first on 36Crypto.