Bitcoin’s on-chain picture is shifting from panic to patience, according to fresh CryptoQuant data highlighted by analyst Darkfost. Long-term holder (LTH) supply — coins held for roughly six months or more and therefore less likely to be sold in short-term moves — has climbed back to 15.26 million BTC, a level not seen since August 2025. The speed of that recovery is notable. Over the past 30 days LTH supply has increased by about 316,000 BTC, pushing the 30-day change into positive territory after a red distribution phase that dominated late 2025. At the end of November, the same 30-day metric showed a roughly 650,000 BTC outflow from LTH wallets, a period that coincided with Bitcoin’s rollover from the October 2025 all-time high and a deeper correction. Darkfost also pointed to a large on-chain transfer from Coinbase earlier in the cycle — roughly 800,000 BTC — that could become a focal point for on-chain commentators on May 23, when those coins cross the six-month mark and would be reclassified as long-term holdings if they remain unmoved. That reclassification could change how much circulating supply is considered “sticky” versus liquid. The LTH trend dovetails with price-focused analysis from Michaël van de Poppe, who argues the market may be overly fixated on new lows. Bitcoin has staged a roughly 25% rebound from its recent troughs despite macro headwinds like Middle East conflict concerns and rising yields. Van de Poppe notes that a brief loss of the 21-day moving average doesn’t necessarily signal a slide into fresh lows while price remains above about $76,000. He also points out that BTC/gold RSI readings are near historic lows — levels that in past cycles often preceded stronger Bitcoin phases rather than the start of prolonged bear markets. That’s not to say lower tests are impossible: van de Poppe accepts a dip toward $70,000 as a plausible support test. However, a full collapse to new cycle lows would likely require Bitcoin to invalidate the 200-week moving average — a break typically seen only during extreme shocks, not routine corrections. Bottom line: on-chain metrics show more coins aging into long-term hands and growing investor patience, which supports a steadier Bitcoin narrative even as traders debate whether the next move will be a fresh leg down or a sustained recovery.
Bitcoin Long-Term Supply Reaches 15.26M BTC, Showing Investor Patience
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Summary
Bitcoin long-term supply hit 15.26M BTC, per CryptoQuant on-chain data. The rise reflects a 316,000 BTC increase in 30 days, reversing a recent outflow. A 800,000 BTC Coinbase transfer could become long-term holdings if unmoved by May 23. BTC price stability above $76,000 may prevent new lows, per Michaël van de Poppe. BTC dominance remains steady amid the shift in holder behavior.
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