As Bitcoin has recently weakened, long-term holders who were previously inactive have begun joining the selling pressure. Compass Point noted that these holders, who had been观望 (holding观望) in recent weeks, have shifted to selling, cumulatively offloading approximately $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin over the past two days, increasing supply-demand pressure in the market.
Long-term holders become net sellers
Compass Point defines long-term holders as investors who have held their coins for at least 155 days. The firm states that these accounts remained largely silent from February to April, but have recently shifted noticeably toward selling over the past few weeks.
Analyst Ed Engel noted that 26% of the Bitcoin sold over the past 30 days came from investors who bought at prices above $90,000. These high-priced buyers, who previously remained relatively stable during the downturn, are now beginning to exit en masse.
Buyers at higher levels are engaging in panic selling.
Engel believes that such concentrated selling by high-level buyers is common in the later stages of a bear market. Based on this assessment, although selling pressure has intensified, it may also indicate that the current Bitcoin downtrend has entered its second half.
Continuous outflows from ETFs are suppressing sentiment.
In addition to selling pressure from coin holders, spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows continue to weaken. According to SoSoValue data, as of Monday, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 11 consecutive trading days, setting a new record for the longest continuous outflow period.
Citi analyst Alex Saunders stated that ETF fund flows remain a significant factor influencing Bitcoin's price, accounting for approximately 45% of weekly return volatility. The recent sustained outflows indicate that investor risk appetite remains weak.
Geopolitical tensions and liquidations amplify the downturn
The report noted that Bitcoin has failed to regain its previous high of over $126,000 from last October. Ongoing uncertainty related to potential U.S.-Iran conflict continues to weigh on prices, while U.S. stocks have reached new highs during the same period, prompting the market to reassess Bitcoin’s narrative as both a safe-haven and risk asset.
Since the beginning of this week, Bitcoin has declined by 10%. A panic sell-off on Monday triggered a cascade of long position liquidations, further amplifying the downward momentum. Reports also indicate that Strategy's sale of 32 Bitcoin was not a primary driver of this decline.