Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged above $80,000 during the Asian trading session before pulling back to $79,000. As of press time, the market-leading cryptocurrency remains up 0.4% over the past 24 hours.
The CoinDesk 20 Index rose 0.4%, with Ethereum (ETH) up nearly 1%, and Ripple (XRP) and Solana (SOL) also posting modest gains.
According to analysts at Marex, the current chart situation is more important than the narrative.
$80,000 is a psychological barrier. If it can be cleanly broken and held, it could generate momentum trading and open up further upside potential. If it rejects, the price will likely remain range-bound within its existing zone and may trigger profit-taking, pulling it back to the mid-$70,000 range.
They added, "Traders are watching here to see whether spot demand will continue to push prices higher, or if this rally is primarily driven by position adjustments."
Due to heightened risk appetite in global markets and strong capital inflows, the likelihood of price breaking through the $80,000 barrier remains high.
“The drivers are simple. Artificial intelligence and strong corporate earnings have fueled the stock market rally, and cryptocurrencies have benefited from this risk-on sentiment. At the same time, institutional demand has clearly returned to the market,” said Marex analysts.
They added, "Last weekend's strong ETF inflows indicate that real money is buying into the breakout attempt, not shorting." Marex Crypto is a division of Marex Group, a diversified financial services company, focused on institutional clients.
According to data from SoSoValue, 11 spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the U.S. attracted over $600 million in funding on Friday, continuing the momentum of $3.29 billion in institutional demand accumulated over the past two months.
Spot ETF fund flows remain strong, with net inflows of approximately $163 million last week. Although there was a noticeable outflow between April 27 and 29, possibly linked to month-end rebalancing and some basis trade adjustments, a $630 million inflow on Friday was sufficient to offset the prior outflows,” said QCP Capital’s market insights team, based in Singapore. QCP Capital is one of Asia’s largest digital asset trading firms.
Even with a favorable macro environment, analysts have identified several key risks that could pose challenges.
First, if tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate again, the risk-on rally could face new pressure. Although both sides have engaged in weeks of peace negotiations, no breakthrough has been achieved, and energy markets remain highly sensitive to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global channel for crude oil transportation.
Under this backdrop, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that purchase Iranian oil.
As trade tensions escalate, global markets are entering a more fragmented phase. The United States warned China that it would impose a 100% tariff if it continued purchasing Iranian oil; China ignored the warning. Meanwhile, President Trump raised tariffs on EU vehicles to 25%, further straining transatlantic relations, said Timothy Misir, Head of Research at BRN.
Secondly, ongoing security risks in decentralized finance (DeFi) threaten its widespread adoption.
For now, the situation is straightforward: the stock market is strong, ETF inflows are increasing, and Bitcoin is benefiting from both. Stay alert!