Prediction markets see low odds of a clear Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, a setup that has previously triggered short-term volatility in bitcoin, which then stabilized.
What to know:
- Bitcoin traded sideways around $91,000 as traders await the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs.
- Polymarket traders assign a 24% chance the Supreme Court will uphold Trump's use of emergency powers for tariffs.
- HSBC predicts gold could reach $5,050 per ounce in early 2026 due to geopolitical risks and rising debt.
Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin traded sideways, around $91,000 during Asia hours, as traders await the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs on January 10, U.S. time.
On Polymarket, traders assign just a 24% chance that the Supreme Court explicitly upholds Trump’s use of emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs.
This matters for bitcoin and crypto prices because past tariff episodes have not behaved like conventional macro shocks. CoinDesk Indices described the Q1 2025 tariff episode as a “Tariff Tantrum,” marked by sharp but temporary drawdowns driven by liquidation cascades, falling leverage demand, and momentum-based selling rather than broad structural exits from the asset class. During that period, CoinDesk research shows trend-following strategies – simple buying when prices rise and selling on the decline – outperformed by cutting risk early, even as long-term participation held steady.
If the Court limits or sidesteps Trump’s tariff authority, market observers like Interactive Brokers economist Jose Torres warn that fiscal uncertainty could increase.
“If the court blocks the tariffs, the administration is going to find workarounds,” Torres told CNBC. “President Trump is very ambitious in getting this agenda through despite potential controversies that could surround such a decision.”
This could potentially push long-term U.S. yields higher and tighten global liquidity, a mix that has historically pressured crypto, which is sensitive to quick changes in both.
That risk stems less from tariffs disappearing than from the likelihood that a constrained ruling forces the administration to rely on slower, narrower, and more litigable trade tools, prolonging policy uncertainty rather than resolving it.
Yet CoinDesk Indicies research shows that once markets accept ambiguity as the base case, bitcoin has tended to stabilize faster than equities, with correlations softening as policy confusion drags on.
For now, bitcoin traders in Asia – a part of the world that has the most to gain from a clean dismantling of Trump's tariff regime – is less focused on the fate of tariffs and more on how long uncertainty is likely to linger once the ruling arrives.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin was little changed near $91,000, edging slightly higher on the hour but still modestly lower over the past day.
ETH: Ether traded around $3,100, slipping more than 2% over 24 hours despite posting gains over the past week.
Gold: HSBC said gold could climb as high as $5,050 per ounce in early 2026 on geopolitical risk and rising debt, but warned of heightened volatility and a potential pullback later in the year if risks fade or the Fed turns more hawkish.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.54% as markets looked ahead to China’s December inflation data, expected at 0.8% year on year.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Trump says he won't rescue Sam Bankman-Fried with pardon (CoinDesk)