Bitcoin Holds at $80K Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Market Correction

Author: Schatong TechFlow

On Thursday, the market woke up from Wednesday’s frenzy to find one page still unsigned.

The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,337.02, the Nasdaq declined 0.13% to 25,806.20, and the Dow Jones dropped 313.62 points (-0.63%) to close at 49,597.17. The Russell 2000 slid 1.74%, posting the largest decline among the four major indices, as small-cap stocks became the primary target for profit-taking following their record highs.

The decline itself isn't significant, but the direction indicates one thing: part of the "peace premium" from Wednesday has already been reversed.

The trigger came from Iran. On Thursday morning, a senior Iranian official told The Wall Street Journal that the U.S. cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz with "unrealistic proposals" and that Iran would not allow the U.S. to withdraw unscathed without paying war reparations. This statement directly dampened the narrative of Wednesday’s sharp oil price decline. Brent crude continued to fall that day, closing at $97.93, down 3.34%, while WTI closed at $91.73, down 3.52%, remaining below $100 for two consecutive days. However, a specific timeline for peace talks remains uncertain.

On the same day, good news and bad news went hand in hand. Iran indicated that it is reviewing a 14-point proposal submitted by the U.S. and previewed that it will deliver a formal response through Pakistan as an intermediary. This signals that negotiations have not fully broken down, but the gap between "reviewing" and "reaching an agreement" can be vast.

After the close on Thursday, a minor clash occurred overnight: three U.S. destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and came under attack from Iran, prompting immediate self-defense measures by the U.S. Both sides offered conflicting accounts—the U.S. Central Command called it an "unprovoked attack by Iran," while Iran described it as a response to U.S. "provocative actions." No casualties were reported, but WTI futures rose approximately 2% that night, climbing back above $93, while Brent crude reasserted its position above $100.

The $27 drop in oil prices on Wednesday is now being gradually paid back.

The semiconductor sector took a collective break today. The SOX index edged lower, with AMD consolidating its gains from the past two days, while NVIDIA and Intel both saw minor pullbacks. Just one day after Wedbush stated that "CPUs stole the spotlight," the market has absorbed this narrative. This is not a trend reversal, but rather a normal technical consolidation—after all, the SOX index has rallied over 50% since its March low, and any sector at this level needs a breather.

Today's most severely affected name was ARM.

ARM Holdings reported its Q4 earnings after hours on Wednesday, with revenue and profits both exceeding expectations; large customer orders for AGI CPUs (confirmed by Meta and OpenAI) appeared promising. The stock rose in pre-market trading but quickly turned downward after open, closing the day down 7.3%.

The reason is simple: ARM acknowledged on the earnings call that there is currently insufficient wafer capacity to meet the additional $1 billion in demand generated by the AGI CPU.

This is the most real barrier facing the entire AI chip industry—not a problem with demand, but with supply failing to keep up. TSMC’s advanced process capacity is already fully booked through 2026, with orders from NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple occupying the top slots. ARM’s new AGI CPU must find space within an already oversubscribed capacity allocation system. The anxiety revealed on the earnings call is this: “We know where the money is, but we won’t get that much capacity this year.”

This is why the negotiations between Apple and Intel regarding chip manufacturing are worth continued tracking—Samsung and Intel’s advanced processes are becoming among the few viable alternatives to TSMC for securing large orders. In this wave of AI Capex, the semiconductor industry’s capacity bottleneck has shifted fundamentally from past “insufficient demand” to today’s “scarce supply.”

McDonald’s (MCD) was a rare standout on Thursday. First-quarter earnings per share came in at $2.83, exceeding expectations of $2.75. Global comparable sales increased by 3.8%, with U.S. comparable sales marking their fourth consecutive quarter of growth at 3.9%. During the earnings call, CFO Ian Borden made a noteworthy comment: “Low-income consumers are certainly under pressure, but they’re still choosing McDonald’s—that’s why we’re working so hard to prove we offer value.” This statement offers a glimpse into the 2026 U.S. consumer landscape: gasoline prices at $4.53 per gallon are pushing the most vulnerable consumers toward the most affordable options.

After hours on Thursday, the two reports took vastly different paths.

Datadog (DDOG) was the biggest positive surprise of the day: Q1 revenue and profits both exceeded expectations, and the full-year guidance was significantly raised to $4.3–4.34 billion, far surpassing analysts’ consensus estimate of $4.09 billion. The stock surged over 30% in after-hours trading, marking its largest single-day gain in six years. Datadog’s thesis is clear: cloud monitoring and AI security are becoming non-negotiable line items in every enterprise’s CapEx plan. As AI systems grow more numerous and complex, the tools to monitor them are generating profits even before AI itself does.

Coinbase (COIN) was the biggest negative surprise of the day: a net loss in Q1, primarily due to a sharp decline in the crypto market during the quarter, reduced trading volume, and a steep drop in fee revenue. It’s ironic given today’s Bitcoin price movement: while on-chain Bitcoin has risen to $82,000, Coinbase’s Q1 financials reflect the darkest period—the $62,000 bottom, three months of sideways movement, and a quiet quarter marked by continuous institutional buying alongside retail exit.

Brent has closed below $100 for two consecutive days, creating a sense in the market that "peace trading has already succeeded halfway." But Thursday night's fighting has cast doubt on this perception.

JPMorgan analysts provided the most specific supply loss figure to date this week: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would result in a global daily loss of approximately 13 million barrels of oil. This figure equals about 12–13% of global daily demand. U.S. Energy Information Administration inventory data shows that the release rate of U.S. strategic reserves continues to accelerate, attempting to offset some of the impact at the domestic market level—but this is a weapon of attrition, not a sustainable solution.

Gold held near $4,718–4,720 on Thursday, experiencing a slight pullback but remaining within a relatively strong zone above $4,700. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged up to 4.37%, as markets swung between expectations of "peace → rate cuts" and concerns over "continued conflict → inflation."

On Thursday, Bitcoin retreated from the previous day’s high of $82,000, falling to around $80,300 during the session following successive reports of hardline statements from Iranian officials and overnight clashes, before closing in the range of $80,500–$80,800, down approximately 1.5%–2% over 24 hours.

$80,000 held steady.

However, both CoinGecko’s on-chain analytics data and CryptoQuant’s reports point to the same level: $81,486, the average cost basis of Bitcoin’s short-term holders over the past 155 days. Historically, this price has served as a key dividing line between bull and bear markets. A closing breakout above it signals that short-term holders are collectively in profit, reducing selling pressure; a breakdown below it triggers collective stop-losses from these holders. Combined with the 200-day moving average at $82,228, these two levels form Bitcoin’s most concentrated resistance zone currently.

Ethereum traded around $2,350–2,380 today, while Solana traded around $84. Major altcoins slightly corrected in tandem with Bitcoin. The global crypto market cap remained in the range of $2.67–2.70 trillion, with the Fear & Greed Index holding near 55 (neutral to optimistic), showing significant improvement from last week’s panic zone below 40.

Today, there’s another signal overlooked by the market: Airbnb’s after-hours earnings report revealed “particularly strong” Q1 bookings, an upward revision to full-year revenue guidance, yet also noted that demand in the Middle East has been suppressed due to conflict. This serves as direct, micro-level validation of the “peace dividend” logic: war doesn’t just affect oil prices—it also dampens global travel intent and actual booking behavior. When conflict truly ends, this suppressed demand will act as a catalyst for consumer-side rebound.

On May 7, the market underwent a technical consolidation after reaching a historical high, with a mild direction, but the underlying logic was quietly shifting.

U.S. Stocks: S&P 500 closed at 7,337.02 (-0.38%), Nasdaq closed at 25,806.20 (-0.13%), Dow Jones fell 313 points (-0.63%), and Russell 2000 dropped 1.74%. Profit-taking dominated, with no significant negative catalysts. ARM fell 7.3% intraday (due to AGI CPU supply constraints), while McDonald’s rose 3.3% (low-income consumers still buying McChicken sandwiches). After hours, Datadog surged 30% (full-year guidance significantly exceeded), while Coinbase reported a loss (Q1 crypto market weakness).

Oil/Gold: Brent closed at $97.93, WTI closed at $91.73, remaining below $100 for two consecutive days, but futures rebounded overnight, pushing Brent back above $100. Iran is reviewing the 14-point proposal but stated that "the U.S. must pay compensation." Gold held at $4,718.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin retreated from $82,000 and closed between $80,500 and $80,800, holding above $80,000. The key technical resistance level is currently $81,486 (the cost basis of short-term holders); breaking above it signals a bullish trend, while failing to hold it suggests a short-term top.

Today, there's only one question: What will the non-farm payrolls data be?

Market expectations call for 55,000 new jobs added in April and an unemployment rate of 4.5%. If the numbers align closely with expectations, it would clearly confirm that the Iran conflict is weighing on the labor market, unexpectedly opening policy space for the Fed. Weak employment combined with stabilizing inflation could reignite expectations of rate cuts, which would be positive for both equities and Bitcoin. If the data comes in significantly stronger than expected (e.g., over 100,000), it would suggest continued resilience in the labor market, prompting the Fed to hold rates steady or even consider hikes, putting pressure on high-valuation sectors.

Two outcomes, with the market reacting in completely opposite ways. Today’s non-farm payrolls report is the last card on the table this week.