Bitcoin Has Not Triggered Key Bear Market Exit Signals

Bitcoin is still far from triggering the three signals that have historically appeared at the end of bear markets, according to analyst Willy Woo.

In a new post on X, analyst Willy Woo has listed the three things that tend to happen at the end of bear markets. The first signal is the price breaking the cost basis of the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs refer to the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. As such, the cost basis of this group represents the break-even level of the recent buyers of the cryptocurrency.

As the below chart shared by Woo shows, Bitcoin fell under the STH cost basis during past bear markets and maintained there, suggesting that the new entrants remained underwater.

As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin also slipped under the STH cost basis alongside the bearish shift in Q4 2025 and since then, it has stayed below this level, with the gap widening over time.

Historically, the cryptocurrency’s price has broken back above the STH cost basis at the end of bear markets (as highlighted with circles in the chart). Another thing that has tended to follow this phase shift is fresh buying from investors. This second signal gives rise to the third one: a reversal of trend in the average acquisition level of the STHs.

From the chart, it’s apparent that the STH cost basis shows a downtrend during bear markets. This is a natural result of coins changing hands at the lower bear market levels, pushing the average break-even level lower. As a transition away from a major bearish phase occurs, investors start buying at higher prices, causing the STH cost basis to see an upward reversal.

Under the post, a user asked asked Woo to elaborate. To which, the analyst responded with:

Given price is not even close to the cost basis of recent investors, and that cost basis is dropping each day… there’s no point in buying until a cross becomes imminent. Bear markets are about patience.

At the moment, the Bitcoin STH cost basis is floating around $81,000, implying that the recent buyers are holding a net unrealized loss of more than 14%. It now remains to be seen how long it will be before the cryptocurrency will be able to find a break back above the level.

Bitcoin ended last week under the $67,000 level, but the digital asset has kicked back up to start Monday, with its price recovering to $69,500.