Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet hit its bottom and is unlikely to reach a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Saylor, an early Bitcoin investor and author. Bitcoin Super Cycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Help You Get Rich.
“Before a Bitcoin bull market arrives, the price needs to break above $100,000, but there is currently no support,” Tepin said, noting that he believes Bitcoin’s bottom will be around $57,000 sometime in October.
Although Bitcoin's price has posted double-digit gains since April, we are still in a downtrend for Bitcoin.
Often referred to as the "Godfather of Cryptocurrency," Taplin entered the industry around 2013, when the digital assets space was still small and not well understood by the mainstream. Among his many entrepreneurial ventures, Taplin founded Transform Group (one of the first PR firms focused on blockchain companies), CoinAgenda (one of the earliest conferences in the field), and BitAngels (a network of cryptocurrency angel investors).
His pessimistic view of this cycle stands in stark contrast to the general consensus among analysts, who believe that the February low around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull cycle. Most bullish analysts cite renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token’s resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price surge as part of their outlook.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Terpin said that during Monday’s Asian trading session, “Bitcoin’s price encountered strong resistance at the $80,000 psychological level, with high oil prices being one of the factors.” He explained that this is common at this stage of the Bitcoin cycle, where price repeatedly breaks higher lows until it eventually collapses.
Market analyst and AdLunam co-founder Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin’s view that the market has not yet reached its bottom, but he disagrees with Terpin’s timeline, adding that the market may not have fully capitulated. Capitulation refers to a phase where long-term holders sell off in large volumes, signaling that selling pressure has peaked.
"Tepper's argument that we've hit a bottom in the later stage of the cycle has some merit, but I don't believe Bitcoin has fully collapsed," Fernandez said. "Historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear reduction in speculative leverage and macroeconomic uncertainty, and we clearly haven't reached that point yet."
Te Ping maintains that fundamentals suggest the bottom will include the historical average within one year after each cycle low.
“This suggests the price will be around $57,000,” he said, predicting this scenario will occur in October, roughly matching the time last year when Bitcoin first fell below $100,000, followed by a sharp drop on October 10. $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out in the largest single-day event in history.
Fernandez added that the broader macroeconomic environment may continue to exert pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
He stated: "Liquidity conditions remain tight, and risk assets overall are still adjusting to the high-interest-rate environment. Downward volatility remains possible unless there is a more decisive shift in monetary policy or a genuine crash event occurs in the cryptocurrency market."
Too pessimistic
The writer and entrepreneur also said that Bitcoin will not set a new all-time high (ATH) this year.
However, cryptocurrency market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, Marty Greenspan, disagrees.
Greenspan said: "Although I rarely disagree with the 'godfather of cryptocurrency,' his view seems overly pessimistic to me. Given the growing acceptance and interest from institutional investors, there is still significant upside potential for cryptocurrencies this year, and setting new all-time highs is not impossible."
Fernandez of AdLunam also said that market sentiment has not yet reached levels typically associated with cycle bottoms.
He said: "Market sentiment has not yet reached the level of extreme pessimism that typically marks a cycle low. In my view, this suggests we may need one more decline before a sustainable bottom forms—regardless of whether the drop fully aligns with the $57,000 to $59,000 range."
Regarding the $100,000 threshold for Tether, Fernández said it is more of a psychological signal than a strict technical barrier.
“A true bull market is defined by continuously rising structural highs and strong capital inflows, not just a single price level,” he said. “That said, reaching the $100,000 mark could trigger this behavior,” Fernandez added.