Bitcoin Fundamentals Weak vs. Arena Group E-commerce Growth: Q4 2025 Contrarian Investment Outlook

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Derived from BitJie Wang, the Q4 2025 crypto market is at a crossroads as Bitcoin faces bearish on-chain signals while traditional sectors like data-driven advertising and e-commerce, led by Arena Group, show strong growth. Bitcoin’s realized price of $55,200 lags far behind the current $111,000 spot price, signaling fragile unrealized gains. Technical indicators, including a bearish divergence in the 14-week RSI since March 2024, and a rising wedge pattern between $102,000 and $131,000, suggest a critical turning point. Meanwhile, Arena Group reported a 67% revenue increase in Q2 2025, with adjusted EBITDA surging 375% to $19 million, driven by its integration of first-party data and creator-led social sales. The company plans to launch a dedicated ad marketplace in October 2025, leveraging its cross-brand traffic and diversified revenue model.

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