Bitcoin continued to weaken this week, falling to its lowest level since early April. One direct factor pressuring the market was the disclosure by crypto treasury firm Strategy that it sold a small portion of its Bitcoin holdings.
Traders on Kalshi believe Bitcoin still has downside potential in the current pullback. The market assigns an approximately 80% probability that it will fall below $60,000 by 2026.
Traders expect a weakening trend.
Traders also believe there is a 52% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 this year, indicating that market bets on further price declines are intensifying.
Expectations from Kalshi have also clearly cooled. Traders now believe the probability of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 by 2026 is only 27%, down from nearly 50% in early May.
Significantly pulled back from the high
According to data cited by CNBC, Bitcoin has declined more than 45% from its peak of over $120,000 in October last year. As of Tuesday, the price was around $66,500, down nearly 10% for the week.
Polymarket traders believe there is only a 12% chance that Bitcoin will reach a new high by 2026, reflecting continued market caution about future prospects.