Bitcoin Drops Nearly 7% as Leverage Is Unwound and ETFs Experience Massive Outflows

U.S. stocks and the AI sector continue to hit new highs, while Bitcoin faces pressure at the key $66,000 level, dropping nearly 7% in 24 hours and accumulating a weekly decline of approximately 13%. The market is currently focused on the deleveraging process. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced consecutive days of net outflows, totaling over $3.4 billion. On-chain net active buying volume—the net difference between主动发起的买卖成交—has turned negative for the first time in three months, with momentum indicators plunging to -59. Concerns are also mounting due to whale sell-offs, MicroStrategy’s minor sale of 32 Bitcoin for dividend payments, and the transfer of approximately 10,422 Bitcoin (around $739 million) by Mt. Gox.

These changes indicate that the buyer-dominated phase has temporarily ended, and the pullback has solid fundamentals. Most discussions focus on short-term risks from a confluence of negative factors, easily interpreting MicroStrategy’s symbolic sale or Mt. Gox’s single transfer as signs of weakened long-term sentiment or a flood of supply. What truly deserves scrutiny is: how far along is this correction? After deleveraging, what observable signals should we track to confirm buy-side replenishment and a bottom?

Selling pressure has been significantly released.

Bitcoin fell approximately 13% this week, with its single-day decline reaching one of the highest levels in recent times, accompanied by increased trading volume and liquidations. Over the past 11 days, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $3.4 to $4.2 billion, primarily driven by products such as BlackRock’s IBIT.

On-chain data shows that addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC net sold approximately 24,600 BTC over the past week, while smaller addresses saw only marginal accumulation.

Buy-side demand has been exhausted for this phase.

The 30-day net active buy volume turned negative, with momentum indicators rapidly approaching a key negative zone. Last week, MicroStrategy sold 32 bitcoins at an average price of approximately $77,100, earning about $2.5 million in dividends for preferred shares. Despite maintaining a total holding of 843,700 bitcoins with an average cost of around $75,700 and emphasizing net purchases at roughly twice the rate of miner output, this minor move was amplified by the market. The funds transferred from Mt. Gox remain largely on-chain and have not yet created significant exchange selling pressure, instead generating short-term panic sentiment.

This pullback is significant but not extreme.

Compared to historical bear market weekly declines, this correction is significant but not catastrophic. After retracing approximately 45–50% from its 2025 high, prices have returned to levels near the sentiment recovery zone of early 2026. These indicators collectively suggest a temporary retreat in buying pressure, with $66,000 serving as a critical support level to hold. However, market sentiment leans toward a linear bearish outlook—do these factors represent isolated negative developments, or are they an inevitable step in systemic deleveraging?

This is more akin to speculative risk being cleared by the system, rather than a seller-driven structural decline.

Open interest (unrealized leveraged positions) has dropped more than 20% from its peak, moving in tandem with price. Some traders view this as a healthy liquidation: the removal of highly leveraged positions reduces market floating supply and creates a cleaner structure, making room for future capital inflows.

After the Mt. Gox transfer, most funds remain on-chain and have not immediately turned into selling pressure. On-chain data also shows accumulation at lower levels, creating a mixed signal alongside the pure sell-off narrative. The capital has not fully exited the crypto market but has instead partially rotated into stablecoins—crypto assets pegged to the U.S. dollar—reflecting a defensive stance driven by risk aversion rather than widespread panic selling. MicroStrategy’s founder, Michael Saylor, and the company continue to emphasize long-term net buying, asserting that “the crypto winter will not return,” providing further validation for the strategy of holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

Similar to the situation after a high-leverage washout in the stock market, post-liquidation positions held by remaining participants are typically more stable, and volatility may decline temporarily. Reduced selling by whales combined with insufficient buying from smaller addresses has intensified short-term volatility, but the key question is who will re-enter the market after liquidations are complete. If this is a healthy deleveraging process, the cleansing effect will gradually manifest across the broader market and across asset classes, leading to clear differentiation within the crypto space; moreover, previously realized pessimistic expectations also have their limits.

The entire crypto market is simultaneously experiencing deleveraging, but divergence has already emerged, and some pessimistic expectations have been partially realized without reaching their extreme.

Bitcoin’s market dominance (Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market) has risen阶段性, while ETH dropped below $1,900, with most altcoins experiencing even larger declines. MSTR’s stock price also faced short-term pressure due to news related to its holdings. The entire sector underperformed compared to U.S. equities and AI stocks hitting new highs, showing a negative decoupling. This indicates that the current dynamics are primarily driven by leverage and demand issues within the crypto market itself, rather than broad-based macro risk aversion.

Capital is opting for defense rather than exiting entirely.

The market share of stablecoins has increased, contrasting with the full withdrawal seen during historical panic cycles.

Although the leveraged liquidation volume was significant, it was lower than the 2022 peak. Some institutional perspectives suggest that, following the liquidations, the market structure has become healthier, creating conditions for new capital to enter. MSTR, as the largest corporate holding vehicle, has engaged in minor sales to fund dividends, but overall continues to emphasize long-term allocation, signaling dynamic management within a financial context rather than a complete shift away.

These divergences indicate that bearish expectations have been largely priced in, reflected in price, outflows, and indicators, yet have not yet escalated into a full-blown collapse. The coexistence of stablecoin inflows and accumulation at low levels suggests the market still retains some resilience. To determine whether this is a阶段性 correction leading into 2026 or a longer-term base-building phase, the specific signals of buying pressure replenishment become the most critical variable.

The key current judgment lies in whether buying pressure can return quickly.

Key metrics to monitor: whether 30-day net active buy volume can sustainably turn positive and exit negative territory; whether spot Bitcoin ETFs shift to net inflows on a daily or weekly basis, ending the streak of continuous outflows; whether macro geopolitical tensions and oil prices ease, allowing risk appetite to recover; and whether whales and institutions accelerate accumulation near current price levels.

Technical analysts such as Peter Brandt suggest a prolonged bottoming phase may occur later in 2026, possibly in September–October, before entering the next cycle, with higher long-term targets—but the market remains in a transitional window.

If these signals emerge in the short term, $66,000 could serve as a阶段性 low, with a cleared market offering better entry conditions for new buyers, allowing positions to gradually shift back from stablecoin buffers to risk assets. Conversely, if buying replenishment is sluggish, macro risks continue to worsen, or ETF outflows persist, support levels may face further pressure, extending the consolidation phase into 2026.

What investors should focus on now is not predicting the exact bottom or blindly buying the dip, but rather adjusting positions based on the verifiable indicators mentioned above. Moderately reduce leverage and maintain a long-term core position, adopting a defensive stance while waiting for confirmation. The greatest risk at present is that buying pressure may replenish slower than expected, or geopolitical risks could worsen beyond anticipation. This will determine whether $66,000 is a temporary low or an intermediate point in an extended bottoming process extending into 2026. The market has already cleared some speculative positions; the long-term institutional and corporate allocation rationale remains intact, but patience is still required in the short term. Position decisions should be guided by these concrete signals, not emotional reactions to isolated news events.

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