Bitcoin Drops Below $70,000 Amid Reports of Pentagon Plans for Iran Strike

ChainCatcher report: The U.S. Department of Defense is preparing for a "decisive strike" against Iran, causing Bitcoin to drop below $70,000 again, with a 3% decline over 24 hours. The trigger for this drop was an Axios report stating that the Pentagon is developing military options against Iran, including ground forces and "large-scale bombing campaigns." Analysts note that Trump’s five-day pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure expires on Friday, leaving Bitcoin’s support levels highly vulnerable. Glassnode indicates that the cost basis for short-term holders (those who bought within the past month) is approximately $70,200, serving as a key support level; resistance lies at the cost basis for 1- to 3-month holders at $82,200. However, accumulated buying pressure at this support level remains limited, and “the probability of a breakdown below this level cannot be ignored until stronger buying support is established.” Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey Group, suggests that the $70,200 level is more likely to be tested repeatedly rather than broken outright, with current price action appearing “more like defensive accumulation than confirmation of a new trend-driven move.” He also warns that the current rebound is primarily driven by leverage rather than sustained spot buying; should sentiment reverse, prices could quickly retreat. On the macro front, the intraday volatility of last month’s VIX futures has surged to 388.2—the highest in six months and roughly four times the typical level associated with market panic—yet the S&P 500 has seen only two trading days in the past three months with daily moves exceeding 1.75%. The Kobeissi Letter notes that implied volatility priced into futures and options markets far exceeds the actual volatility of the S&P 500, indicating that “uncertainty is at an unprecedented level.”