The Scene After the Crash: Institutions Call It a Buying Opportunity, Traders Shift to U.S. Stocks
Original author: Ma He, Foresight News
On June 6, BTC briefly fell below the $60,000 mark, dropping as low as $59,130. On June 8, the price of Bitcoin rebounded to around $63,000. Although the price has recovered by several thousand dollars, the earlier breach of this key psychological level has still dealt a significant blow to market confidence and sentiment in the crypto space.
Its fear index is currently at 15, and market sentiment remains in extreme fear. Most altcoins are following suit, declining sharply along with the broader market.
Is this the bottom zone? Institutions, traders, and others have shared their views.
Co-founder of Glassnode: $46,000 to $54,000 is the key bottom range
Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted that Bitcoin has retraced approximately 50% from its all-time high, and on-chain data shows BTC is currently trading near a key support zone between the median realized price ($64,100) and the 200-week moving average ($61,700).
Historically, Bitcoin has been below this level for only about 7% of trading time.
From a long-term valuation model, below the 200-week moving average lie the realized price (approximately $54,000), CVDD (approximately $46,200), equilibrium price (approximately $40,000), and Delta price (approximately $35,000). In every prior bear market bottom, the price touched this cost range before reversing, with CVDD historically serving as the most accurate bottom anchor. Based on the current model, the range of $46,000 to $54,000 represents the higher-probability bottom zone, while $35,000 to $40,000 constitutes a deep capitulation zone under extreme panic conditions—historically occurring on fewer than 3% of trading days.
However, as the Bitcoin market matures, the magnitude of cyclical drawdowns has shown a narrowing trend. Previous bear markets saw maximum declines of 85%, 84%, and 77%, whereas this cycle has thus far declined only about 50% from its all-time high. This suggests there is still potential for further downside, but the more likely support range lies between $46,000 and $54,000. Should a rebound occur, the first significant recovery zone will be between $75,000 and $79,000, with greater resistance near the 50-week moving average at approximately $93,000 and the prior all-time high.
NYDIG Global Research Head: AI is drawing away significant cryptocurrency funds
Greg Cipolaro, Head of Global Research at NYDIG, stated in a research report that he believes the overlap between AI and crypto investors is far greater than many realize. Both attract investors seeking exposure to emerging technologies and excess returns. As AI-related stocks continue to outperform the broader market, capital has flowed away from the crypto market. Investors are also preparing for what could become the largest technology IPO cycle in years. Quantum computing and Strategy’s BTC sell-off have further intensified market concerns.
Greg Cipolaro’s report indicates that multiple indicators are approaching levels historically associated with major bottoms. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has fallen to 1.2, and the percentage of profitable supply has recently dipped below 50%, another metric often linked to capitulation. However, this pullback remains relatively mild by historical standards. He notes that Bitcoin is down approximately 53% from its peak of $126,000 in October, significantly shallower than the 75%-90% drawdowns seen in previous cycles. Whether the bottom has been formed likely depends on whether institutional demand has structurally altered the cycle or merely delayed a deeper recalibration.
Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Assets Research: Bitcoin's bottom is nearly in place
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, said that Bitcoin's bottom is "nearly formed," and the current price range may be the long-awaited buying opportunity investors have been waiting for.
A key trigger for this downturn was Strategy selling 32 BTC, but based on historical experience from late 2022, Strategy is likely to quickly rebalance with a much larger buyback, potentially reaching 10 to 100 times the amount previously sold.
If buying pressure is confirmed, it will serve as an important signal that the market has reached its bottom.
Strive CEO: Bitcoin has touched the 200-week moving average (the fifth time in history), with the previous four instances serving as perfect buying opportunities.
Matt Cole, CEO of asset management firm Strive, told CNBC Squawk Box Europe that Bitcoin touching the 200-week moving average—for the fifth time in history—has historically been a "perfect buying opportunity" each of the previous four times. He emphasized that Bitcoin's fundamentals have "never been better" and views this touch of the 200-week moving average as a historic buying opportunity.
Trader Eugene: Has temporarily stepped away from the crypto market and shifted to U.S. stocks, no longer attempting to buy the dip in Bitcoin.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he has largely exited the cryptocurrency market since May 13 of this year and has shifted his primary focus to researching the stock market. He believes that, compared to the current crypto market, the stock market offers greater appeal in terms of research depth, cognitive challenges, and trading and investment opportunities. Based on his assessment of the current industry landscape, he expects to maintain this strategy for the foreseeable future, continuing to monitor crypto industry developments without actively participating in trading.
Eugene further stated that he has no plans to re-enter the crypto market unless a highly attractive risk-reward opportunity emerges, and such conditions have not yet materialized. He believes that the trajectory of the crypto market is diminishing its appeal as a space for trading and investment, and thus he will continue to focus on traditional stock markets in the near term.
When discussing Strategy, Eugene believes the associated risks have only just begun to emerge. He notes that even though Strategy has sold more Bitcoin recently, it has merely delayed the problem rather than truly resolved it.
He was not bullish on Bitcoin long positions until the strong correlation between Strategy and Bitcoin was broken. Regarding the market bottom, he admitted he cannot determine its location, but he has stopped attempting "catching falling knives" by buying the dip.
Trader Killa: This is a standby buying opportunity.
Trader Killa tweeted on June 6 during the Bitcoin decline that this is a generational buying opportunity. On June 8, he stated that BTC has entered the "final stage" and "final extension," and has deployed 90% of his position.
Additionally, Killa noted that the "protective bid wall" that appeared during last weekend's crash has not yet been removed, and he believes it is unlikely that these support levels will be quickly tested in the short term. Killa is a quantitative trader focused on BTC who correctly predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025.
Analyst Darkfost: Bitcoin has entered an extremely undervalued zone
According to analyst Darkfost's data, Bitcoin has retraced to the Power Law model and broken below the 4th percentile, entering an extremely undervalued range—historically, it has only been at this valuation level 4% of the time. Darkfost emphasizes that this is a suitable time for long-term position building, not a short-term price prediction.
Polymarket data: 72% probability of BTC falling below $55,000
Latest data from Polymarket shows a 41% probability of BTC falling below $45,000, a 56% probability of falling below $50,000, and a 72% probability of falling below $55,000. The probability of falling below $40,000 is 31%, and the probability of falling below $35,000 is only 21%.
Most market participants currently believe the probability of BTC falling below $35,000–$40,000 is low.
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