Original Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
On the morning of February 6, when Bitcoin fell below $60,000, the entire crypto community fell into panic. From the all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin had already dropped by 52%.
But if you look at the 15-year price history of Bitcoin, you will find a harsh fact:A 52% drop is historically just "a drizzle."
The "Drawdown Code" of the Bitcoin Bear Market
Let's first look at a set of data:
This table reveals a clear pattern:The maximum drawdown in each bear market cycle is decreasing.
From 94% to 87%, then to 84%, 77%, Bitcoin's "bear market standard" is proceeding at each round 5-10 percentage pointsThe range has narrowed.
Look at this decreasing pattern more precisely:
- 2011→2013: Decreased by 7 percentage points (94%→87%)
- 2013→2017: Decreased by 3 percentage points (87%→84%)
- 2017→2021: Decreased by 7 percentage points (84%→77%)
The average decreases by about 5-7 percentage points per round.
Why?
The market capitalization base becomes larger, and volatility naturally decreases.
In 2011, the market capitalization of Bitcoin was only tens of millions of dollars, and a "whale" selling off could crash the price by 94%.
In 2026, even if Bitcoin is halved from its peak to $60,000, its market capitalization will still exceed $1 trillion. To cause a trillion-dollar asset to drop another 30-40%, the volume of selling would need to be thousands of times that of 2011.
Institutional entry provided a "liquidity cushion"
Before 2018, Bitcoin holders were mainly retail investors and early miners. Once panic set in, everyone stampeded at the same time, with no "buyers to take the other side."
After 2022, institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale held hundreds of thousands of bitcoins through ETFs. These institutions will not panic and sell off en masse due to a single crash; their presence is equivalent to placing a "safety net" in the market.
According to Bloomberg data, as of the end of January 2026, the total holdings of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeded 900,000 BTC, valued at over $70 billion. The "lock-up effect" of these holdings directly reduces the market's available supply for sale.
The evolution of Bitcoin from "speculative item" to "asset class"
In 2011-2013, Bitcoin was still a geek's toy, with its price entirely driven by sentiment.
From 2017 to 2021, Bitcoin began to be regarded as "digital gold," but still lacked a clear valuation anchor.
After 2025, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, the GENIUS Act advancing stablecoin legislation, and Trump's proposal for a "strategic reserve" plan—regardless of whether these policies are actually implemented—Bitcoin has already transformed from a "marginal asset" into "a part of the mainstream financial system."
The result of this evolution is a reduction in volatility.
The supply shock of the halving cycle is weakening.
In the past, the price of Bitcoin was mainly affected by the 4-year halving cycle, during which the new supply is reduced by 50% every four years.
When the first halving occurred in 2012, the daily new output dropped from 7,200 to 3,600, causing a huge supply shock.
After the fourth halving in 2024, the daily new output will decrease from 900 to 450, although the percentage is the same, the absolute reduction amount has already become very small, and the impact on the market is also decreasing.
The "deflationary effect" on the supply side is weakening, and the "speculative frenzy" on the demand side is also cooling, leading together to a narrowing of volatility.
Where is the "bottom" this time if history repeats itself?
Based on the historical pattern of "decreasing each round," we can simulate three scenarios:
Scenario 1: Optimistic assumption, the decline narrows to 65%
If the maximum drawdown in this cycle is 65% (a 12 percentage point decrease from the previous cycle's 77%, slightly above the historical average decline):
Bottom price = 126,000 × (1 - 65%) = 44,100 USD
From 60,000 to 44,100, there is still 26% decline potential.
Reason for support:
Institutional holdings ratio reaches a historical high, ETFs provide strong "buying support"
Although the Fed is hawkish, the market has advanced the expectation of rate cuts in 2026 from July to June.
Trump's March 7 White House cryptocurrency summit may release policy benefits
Stablecoins have experienced negative growth, but TVL (Total Value Locked) remains stable above $230 billion.
Risk factors:
High-leverage holders of positions in Strategy, if forced to sell coins, will trigger a chain reaction.
Trump's "strategic reserve" promise remains unfulfilled, the market may lose patience
If you believe in this scenario: You should start building positions in batches below $50,000, and you can increase the intensity around $45,000.
Scenario 2: Neutral Assumption - Decline of 70-72%
If the maximum drawdown in this cycle is 70-72% (strictly following the historical pattern of "decreasing by 5-7 percentage points"):
Bottom price (70%) = 126,000 × (1 - 70%) = 37,800 USD
Bottom price (72%) = 126,000 × (1 - 72%) = 35,280 USD
From 60,000 to 35,000-37,800 dollars, there is still 37-41% decline potential.
Reason for support:
Perfectly in line with historical patterns, neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic
The complexity of the current macroeconomic environment (interest rate cut expectations + balance sheet reduction concerns) is comparable to that of 2018.
The "200-week moving average" of Bitcoin corresponds to 35,000 to 38,000 US dollars, and historically this line is a strong support.
Risk factors:
If the US economy enters a recession, all risky assets will face indiscriminate selling.
If the AI bubble bursts, the collapse of tech stocks will drag down Bitcoin.
If you believe in this scenario: You should hold your main bullets below $40,000; the range of $35,000 to $45,000 is your "heavy position zone."
Scenario 3: Pessimistic Assumption - Decline Reverts 75-80%
If this time "it's really different," a structural collapse in the market causes the decline to revert to the average level of 2017-2022:
Bottom price (75%) = 126,000 × (1 - 75%) = 31,500
US dollar bottom price (80%) = 126,000 × (1 - 80%) = 25,200 US dollars
From the current 70,000 to 25,000-31,500 dollars will be a battleAnother 50% massacre drop.
Reason for support:
The "triple whammy" on February 6 (simultaneous crash of US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin) shows that Bitcoin's "safe-haven property" has completely collapsed.
Although ETFs have absorbed a large amount of shares, it also means that institutions can "sell all at once"
Trump's government's tariff policy triggered a global trade war, potentially leading to a global recession.
Talent drain in the crypto industry and VC exits (e.g., Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani announcing his exit) indicate a collapse of confidence in the industry.
If you believe in this scenario: You should liquidate your position and exit immediately, waiting until it completely crashes below $30,000, or only keep 10-20% of your position to "take a gamble," and withdraw the rest of your funds to observe.
Don't be afraid to miss out
Some people are always worried about what if they miss the buying opportunity at this bear market bottom?
The answer is simple, chase the rising trend or wait for the next cycle.
Cryptocurrency is not the only chance to turn your life around. If you think it is, you've already lost.
In 2015, people who missed out on $150 still had a chance in 2018 when it was $3,200.
In 2018, those who missed out on $3,200 still had a chance in 2022 with $15,000.
But the premise is: you have to live through the next cycle.
Don't completely leave this market just because of one failed all-in.
In addition, most people only care about "at what price to buy," but neglect "when to sell."
Give three examples:
Case 1:
Old Zhang heavily bought in December 2018 when Bitcoin was at $3,200. In June 2019, Bitcoin rose to $13,000, Old Zhang thought "The bull market has come," and didn't sell. In December 2019, Bitcoin fell back to $7,000, Old Zhang thought "It's all over," and cut his losses and left the market.
The final outcome: less than 1x profit, also washed out, missed the $69,000 in 2021.
Case 2:
Xiaoli also bought in at $3,200, but he set himself a rule:I will never sell unless it rises to $50,000.He remained unmoved by all the fluctuations in 2019-2020. In April 2021, when Bitcoin rose to $63,000, Xiao Li sold 50%, locking in a 15 times profit. The remaining 50% he held until the high of $69,000 in November 2021, and finally sold it.
Outcome: Average profit of 18 times.
Case 3:
Old Wang started a fixed investment of 1000 yuan every month from December 2018, regardless of ups and downs. He persisted for 3 years and stopped the fixed investment in December 2021.
His average cost was about $12,000 (because he bought cheaply in the early stage and expensively in the later stage). In November 2021, when Bitcoin was $69,000, he sold all of it, making a profit of about 4.7 times.
Outcome: Although not as good as Xiao Li, he doesn't need "timing" at all, making it the simplest to execute.
These three cases tell us that it doesn't matter how low you copy, what matters is being able to hold on.
If you don't initially intend to hold the coins for life, then setting a "profit-taking plan" in advance is essential. While dollar-cost averaging may not be exciting, it is the most suitable method for ordinary people. Most people cannot buy at the bottom and sell at the top. Buying in batches and selling in batches will always be a relatively better approach.
Final words: A bear market is the opportunity for the poor to turn their luck around.
In 2011, someone who bought Bitcoin for $2 has now achieved a 30,000 times return (even calculated at the recent bottom of $60,000).
In 2015, the person who bought it for $150 now has 400 times that amount.
In 2018, those who bought in at $3,200 now have 18.75 times the value.
In 2022, the person who bought it for $15,000 now has four times as much.
Every bear market is a redistribution of wealth.
Those who recklessly chase rising prices at the highs are washed out during the bear market; those who panic and sell at the bottom hand over their positions to others.
Those who truly make money are always the ones who dare to build positions in batches when everyone else is desperate.
As long as you believe, the price of Bitcoin will blow up, and it will be even higher.
In 2018, when Bitcoin fell to $3,200, some people said, "Bitcoin is dead."
In 2022, when Bitcoin fell to $15,000, many people cried out that the end of cryptocurrency had come.
In February 2026, when Bitcoin fell below $60,000, people all over the world were asking, "Is this time different?"
If you believe that "history repeats itself," then the next 6-12 months is one of the few moments in your life where you can buy "the future" at a "relatively low price."
Whether you believe it or not, it's your choice.