Stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data weighed on market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, putting pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin dropped to around $59,100 on June 5 before slightly recovering, but remained below the key psychological level of $60,000.
Macroeconomic expectations shift
After the jobs data release, traders began reassessing the interest rate path. Market expectations for rate cuts this year have significantly cooled, with some institutions even shifting to discussing the possibility of another rate hike.
This week, BNP Paribas also revised its outlook, expecting the Federal Reserve to implement three rate hikes starting in December. The bank cited factors including inflationary pressures, labor market resilience, and the potential upward pressure on energy prices from U.S.-Iran tensions.
- Polymarket shows the probability of an interest rate hike this year rising to 52%.
- CME FedWatch shows a 42.7% probability of a higher interest rate in December.
- Bitcoin has declined by approximately $19,000 over the past 10 days.
Clearing volume is rapidly expanding
The derivatives market further amplified this downturn. According to CoinGlass data, total liquidations in the crypto market over the past 24 hours exceeded $1.7 billion, with long positions alone accounting for over $155 million in liquidations within just one hour.
As Bitcoin dropped below $60,000, leveraged positions on multiple trading platforms were automatically liquidated, rapidly increasing selling pressure. The report noted that Deribit had over $1.2 billion in notional value of put options outstanding near the $60,000 strike price, making this level a key focus for the market.
If the price remains below $60,000, market makers may need to hedge risk by selling spot or futures contracts, which could further increase short-term volatility.
ETF ends consecutive outflows
Despite the sharp price decline, there are rare signs of easing institutional fund flows. SoSoValue data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $3 million in net inflows on June 4, ending a streak of 13 consecutive trading days of net outflows.
Over those 13 trading days, such funds experienced a cumulative outflow of approximately $4.37 billion. This net inflow was modest, but it at least halted the longest ongoing streak of ETF redemptions this year.
Meanwhile, gold and silver also failed to clearly attract safe-haven funds. Reports show that gold prices fell by approximately 3.5% and silver prices by about 7.5%, indicating that investors were more likely reducing exposure across multiple asset classes simultaneously rather than shifting toward precious metals.
$55,000 is the next level to watch.
On-chain metrics are beginning to show signs of nearing a阶段性出清. Analyst Seth notes that the current percentage of profitable Bitcoin addresses has reached the long-term trendline, a level that previously coincided with cycle lows during past major drawdowns.
The report also noted that the realized losses of short-term holders have reached a historical high, with the profit-loss ratio hitting a new low, indicating that recent buyers are collectively cutting their losses. The number of bitcoins held by long-term holders in an unrealized loss position is approximately 5.3 million, exceeding the level observed after the FTX event.
After breaking below $60,000, the next significant support area is near $55,000, corresponding to this year’s February low. If this level is also breached, the $50,000 psychological level may come back into focus.