Bitcoin faces renewed “Sell in May” narrative as analysts warn of potential historical price drop pattern repeating.
Past midterm cycles show Bitcoin dropped over 70% in May, raising fears of another major correction ahead
Historical data shows May ranks among Bitcoin’s better months, challenging claims of consistent seasonal bearish trend.
Every year, as May starts, a similar phrase begins to circulate in financial circles. “Sell in May and go away.”
Several crypto experts are warning of a possible Bitcoin drop based on past market cycles. Analyst DefiTracer believes Bitcoin could fall to $30,000 if history repeats.
However, others believe this time may be different, as Bitcoin is already trading nearly 45% below its all-time high.
So, will the famous “Sell in May and go away” pattern happen again, or will Bitcoin break the trend this year?
Where Did This ‘Sell in May’ Theory Even Come From?
This phrase wasn’t born in crypto. It came from the London stock market decades ago. The idea was simple, wealthy traders and fund managers would wrap up their positions before summer, head off on holidays, and return in September when markets picked up again.
With fewer big players active during the summer months, trading volumes dropped, and so did price action.
Over time, this pattern was noticed, named, and eventually took on a life of its own. And when Bitcoin started attracting the same institutional money that drives traditional markets, people began wondering if the same seasonal behavior would follow.
Three Cycles That Made Everyone Nervous
This is where the fear comes from, and there is some reason behind it.
Looking at Bitcoin’s mid-term years, major crashes have happened in the past. In 2014, Bitcoin fell nearly 69%. In 2018, it dropped around 72%. In 2022, it declined close to 71%.
All three big downturns started around May, which is why many traders pay close attention to this period.
Since 2026 is another midterm year, and Bitcoin is already in a correction, some investors are warning that history could repeat itself.
Even crypto Defitracer predicts that a drop toward $30,000 is possible if it’s Sell in May and go away”.
What Does the Actual Data Say?
Looking at Bitcoin’s monthly return history since 2013, May ranks as the 6th best month by average return and the 3rd best month by median return. That means May has often been a solid month for Bitcoin.
Some of the strong gains include 52% in May 2019, 52% in May 2017, and nearly 39.4% in May 2014. Meanwhile, last year in May, it saw a jump of 11%. However, these numbers show May is not always a bad month.
Yes, there were weak years too. Bitcoin fell 35% in May 2021 and 15.6% in May 2022. But looking at the full history, the data does not support a simple “sell everything in May” strategy.
What is fair to say is that from May to June, markets often slow down. Volatility becomes lower, and big price moves happen less often.
Market Conditions Add More Complexity
Another key factor is the current market setup. Bitcoin is already trading far below its all-time high, down nearly 45%. This creates a different situation compared to past cycles, where big corrections usually came after long rallies.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also been absorbing recent selling pressure, helping balance the market. They have been one of the main drivers behind Bitcoin’s move to new all-time highs.
Some experts believe the market may already be in a selling phase, which could lower the chances of another sharp drop.
So, Will It Happen Again?
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $77,141, up 2% in the last 24 hours, with a market value of $1.54 trillion.
Bitcoin is still down from its previous highs, and macro uncertainty remains. On-chain data is giving mixed signals, while past midterm-year trends are also making investors cautious.
The smart move is not to panic sell in May, but also not to ignore market signals.