Huoxing Finance reports that Axel Adler, an analyst at CryptoQuant, stated in his weekly analysis that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to approximately 4.7%, nearing the upper bound of its five-year range. The high-interest-rate environment is tightening financial conditions, increasing financing costs and asset discount rates, and exerting greater pressure on risk assets. Currently, futures markets estimate a 38% probability of a rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting, but a Reuters survey of 104 economists generally expects rates to remain unchanged. Regarding the Bitcoin market, Axel Adler noted that after rebounding approximately 11% from its June low of around $59,000 to nearly $66,000, BTC has since retreated to approximately $64,300. Four potential risks are currently emerging simultaneously: first, volatility has compressed significantly, with July’s realized volatility declining 31% to the 8th percentile of its historical range, suggesting a potentially more volatile move ahead; second, U.S. spot market demand remains weak, with BTC trading at a discount for the past two and a half months and no sustained capital inflows observed; third, market buying liquidity is insufficient, as stablecoins continue to flow out of exchanges and new capital activity has dropped to annual lows; fourth, investors are still realizing losses, with some positions exiting during the recovery phase, exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, Adler mentioned that Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, has not continued large-scale Bitcoin purchases recently; instead, he published a lengthy article recommending 38 books on civilization, money, energy, and technological development, aiming to construct a theoretical framework positioning Bitcoin as the long-term outcome of financial evolution. Adler believes the market remains in a critical observation phase, requiring close attention to changes in liquidity, the recovery of U.S. demand, and whether investor behavior improves.
Bitcoin Faces Four Risks Amid Rising U.S. Bond Yields
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Summary
Bitcoin’s risk-to-reward ratio is under pressure as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rise toward 4.7%, according to CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler. BTC rose 11% from $59,000 in June to $66,000 but has since declined to $64,300. Four risks include compressed volatility, weak U.S. spot demand, low buying liquidity, and ongoing losses. Volatility indicators show little sign of a reversal. MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor has paused large BTC purchases, instead promoting long-term adoption through articles and book recommendations.
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