Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to hold billions in assets despite bitcoin's brutal price crash, but that staying power isn't necessarily the bullish signal that many have come to believe.
According to one analyst, the resilience stems from market makers and arbitrageurs who trade in and out rather than die-hard long-term holders betting on price appreciation.
Bitcoin's BTC$67,709.77 price peaked above $126,000 in early October and recently crashed to nearly $60,000. Despite the price halving, the 11 spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. have cumulatively registered just $8.5 billion in net outflows. These funds still hold $85 billion in assets under management, which equates to over 6% of bitcoin's supply.
Several analysts, including those CoinDesk spoke with at Consensus Hong Kong last week, cited the same data as evidence of bullish positioning.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, says the resilience comes not just from long-term hodlers, but from market makers and arbitrageurs with hedged, non-directional positions.
"This reflects the structural nature of ETF ownership, which is dominated by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds holding largely hedged positions, as well as long-term institutional investors with low turnover and longer investment horizons," Thielen said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
Thielen pointed to reports from institutions (called 13F filings) for late 2025. They show that 55% to 75% of BlackRock's IBIT ETF, which holds $61 billion, is owned by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds who keep their bets hedged or neutral, not truly bullish on bitcoin.
Market makers are entities that create liquidity in an exchange's order book, facilitating the seamless execution of large buy and sell orders at stable prices. They profit from the bid-ask spread and therefore strive to maintain market-neutral exposure to bypass price volatility risks. Similarly, arbitrage hedge funds take opposing positions in two markets, such as spot ETFs and futures, to profit from the price differential between the two.
Both entities, therefore, do not inject directional pressures (bullish/bearish) into the market.
Thielen added that market makers trimmed exposure by around $1.6 billion to $2.4 billion during the fourth quarter, as bitcoin traded near $88,000, reflecting "declining speculative demand and reduced arbitrage inventory requirements."