Bitcoin has experienced consecutive quarterly declines in the first two quarters of 2026, a pattern that has occurred only three times in its history. As the third quarter begins, the market is reassessing whether this pullback is merely a temporary correction or the continuation of a longer-term downtrend.
The decline in the first half of the year continued to widen.
According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin fell 22.2% in the first quarter and another 14.09% in the second quarter. As of Wednesday, the price continues to fluctuate above $59,000, showing a significantly weaker performance compared to its usual historical pattern.
The market has closed two consecutive quarters in decline to start the year, a scenario previously seen only in 2018 and 2022. Both of those years were among the weaker phases in Bitcoin’s history, with no significant recovery occurring in the second half.
- In the third quarter of 2018, it rose only 3.6%.
- In the fourth quarter of 2018, it subsequently fell by 42%.
- The two quarters in the second half of 2022 continued to decline.
The seasonal pattern of the third and fourth quarters once failed.
Historically, the third quarter has typically been the weakest quarter for Bitcoin, while the fourth quarter has often been stronger, having helped the market recover年内 losses on multiple occasions. This is a well-known seasonal pattern in the market.
However, in 2018 and 2022, this pattern did not hold. CoinDesk believes that deeper market pressures overwhelmed seasonal factors, causing what would typically be a strong year-end rally to continue declining.
ETF outflows and capital rotation exert pressure
The report noted that this round of weakness resembles sustained selling rather than short-term panic. Over the past month, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced record outflows, and on-chain active user numbers have remained at low levels, indicating continued weak market participation.
Meanwhile, a portion of funds continues to flow into AI stocks. The relevant sector has just recorded its best quarterly performance in years, while crypto assets declined during the same period. A stronger U.S. dollar has also added pressure, with the yen recently hitting a multi-decade low, further boosting the dollar’s performance.
$40,000 is a key area of interest
FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said that if the current support is broken, $40,000 could become the next price level to watch. Bitcoin opened the third quarter with only a modest rebound of about 1%, leaving the market direction still uncertain.