Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 before recovering above the $61,000 level.
Glassnode's Rafael identifies $46,000 to $54,000 as likely bottom range.
Bitcoin recovery above $75,000 could signal first meaningful market structure repair.
Bitcoin’s recent drop below $60,000 has shaken the crypto market. But according to Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft, the latest drop may be bringing Bitcoin into a rare price zone that has historically marked major market bottoms.
The big question: Is Bitcoin close to its bottom level, or is there still more pain ahead?
Bitcoin Enters a Historical Support Zone
The latest drop pushed Bitcoin to an intraday low of $59,791 before recovering above $61,000. The decline came days after Strategy disclosed a partial Bitcoin sale, adding fresh pressure to an already weak market.
According to Rafael, Bitcoin has now moved into a cluster of valuation levels that have historically acted as support during major market drops.
One notable signal is that Bitcoin has fallen below the median holder’s breakeven price for the first time since December 2022. The asset is also trading around two closely watched levels, first the Median Realized Price near $64,100 and the 200-week moving average around $61,700.
Rafael noted that “Only about 7% of Bitcoin’s trading history has been spent below this Median MVRV level,” suggesting the market is entering territory rarely seen outside major cycle lows.
Glassnode Identifies the Most Likely Bottom Range
While several valuation models are flashing support signals, Rafael believes one metric stands above the rest.
The Cyclical Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model, currently near $46,200, has historically been one of Bitcoin’s most accurate bottom indicators. In previous cycles, Bitcoin repeatedly found its final low close to this level before beginning a recovery.
Based on the current framework, Rafael sees the highest-probability bottom zone between Bitcoin’s Realized Price around $54,000 and the CVDD level near $46,000.
A deeper capitulation remains possible, but less likely. Below that sits a lower support range between $35,000 and $40,000, a zone that Bitcoin has visited during less than 3% of its trading history.
Why This Cycle May Be Different
Rafael also shows that Bitcoin drawdowns have become less severe over time. Earlier bear markets saw declines of more than 80%, while the current cycle has fallen roughly 50% from its peak so far. That trend suggests Bitcoin may not need a dramatic collapse to complete its correction.
For bulls, the next challenge is reclaiming higher levels. Rafael identified the $75,000 to $79,000 range as the first major recovery zone, where several important market indicators now converge.
If history repeats, the market may be approaching the area where long-term buyers begin stepping back in.