BlockBeats news, on June 8, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that the primary reason for Bitcoin's recent drop below $60,000 was not market concerns over Strategy selling Bitcoin, but rather institutional investors continuously withdrawing from spot Bitcoin ETFs following a resurgence in U.S. inflation.
Thielen noted that since the U.S. April CPI data came in higher than expected on May 12, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have累计 net outflows of approximately $5.4 billion, while Strategy has instead increased its Bitcoin holdings by about $2 billion, becoming one of the few major buyers in the market. He believes the market has misjudged the driving force behind this downturn: “The issue is not with Strategy.”
10x Research expects the U.S. May CPI year-over-year growth rate to rise to 4.3%, above the market expectation of 4.2%. If the data released on Wednesday exceeds 4%, it could further intensify market concerns that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even re-raise rates, continuing to weigh on risk asset performance.
Although Bitcoin's short-term technical indicators have entered oversold territory, a rebound is possible; however, if inflation data continues to exceed expectations, the upward momentum may be difficult to sustain. Additionally, stablecoins saw a net outflow of approximately $1.7 billion last week, with a cumulative outflow of $5.5 billion over the past month, while Bitcoin futures open interest has significantly declined, indicating that capital continues to exit the crypto market.
He emphasized that spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows remain the most critical indicator for judging future market direction: "It is institutional ETF funds, not market narratives, that drive prices."