Bitcoin Diverges from Global M2 Money Supply Growth, Analysts Split on 2026 Outlook

According to a ChainCatcher report, since mid-2025, Bitcoin has started to decouple from the growth of the global M2 money supply (i.e., the total amount of money in circulation in the market, including cash, checking accounts, savings deposits, etc.), and this trend has become even more pronounced at the beginning of 2026. Historically, the correlation between the two had served as a basis for bullish predictions, but now analysts are sharply divided in their views on this phenomenon. Fidelity Digital Assets' January report remains optimistic, suggesting that as the global monetary easing cycle begins and the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) program ends, the M2 growth rate will continue to rise in 2026, which would be favorable for Bitcoin prices. Analyst MartyParty predicts that Bitcoin prices will rebound and catch up with M2 growth. However, Mister Crypto argues that the decoupling of Bitcoin prices from M2 typically signals a market top, followed by a 2-4 year bear market. Meanwhile, the founder of Capriole Investments believes the decoupling reflects the risk of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin's encryption. Despite these uncertainties, investors still view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.