Odaily Planet Daily report: CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated in a post that "the Bitcoin position index is a comprehensive metric measuring the aggressiveness of long/short positions in the derivatives market, reflecting the current actual positioning of futures market participants. The 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) of this index reached a local high of +3.0 on March 17, when Bitcoin’s price was $73,925, and has since declined steadily, falling to -3.1 today—indicating sustained accumulation of short positions. During the same period, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d moving in tandem with the market price, further confirming a weakening market structure."
The liquidation oscillator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued rising, reaching 18.6% as of today. This indicates sustained forced liquidations on the long side, preventing structural recovery. The red bars reflecting dominant short liquidations have not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) remains elevated and no clear red bars reappear, pressure on long positions will persist. A downward reversal of the 30DMA would be the first signal that liquidation balance is beginning to restore.
The reversal of both indicators occurred simultaneously and corroborated each other. Bitcoin’s price has declined approximately 11% from its peak of $74,883, and the current derivatives market structure shows no foundation for a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs continue to be liquidated, and short squeezes are nearly absent. Current trading stance: avoid risk. The primary downside risk lies in the possibility that if liquidation pressure persists and open interest remains below the 30-day SMA, the bearish outlook will further solidify, intensifying downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price toward $66,000.