Bitcoin derivatives market protection demand reaches the 99th percentile, viewed as a reverse long signal.

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Demand for protection in the Bitcoin derivatives market has surged to the 99th percentile, according to Matthew Sigel of VanEck, signaling increased risk aversion and a potential reverse long setup. Sigel noted that the Bitcoin news environment remains volatile, with VanEck’s NODE ETF rising 27% since its launch, outperforming Bitcoin’s 33% decline. He warned that unprofitable AI spending could pressure markets, especially as concentration in the S&P 500 continues to grow.

Odaily Planet Daily reports: Matthew Sigel, Research Director at VanEck, posted on X analyzing that protective demand in the current Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the 99th percentile, typically viewed as a contrarian bullish signal under conditions of extreme market risk aversion, and concluded that the current market environment is suitable for establishing long positions.

Matthew Sigel also manages the VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which has risen 27% since its inception, compared to a 33% decline in Bitcoin over the same period, achieving lower volatility through diversified allocation and focus on profitable sectors. However, he cautions that substantial capital expenditures by companies in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, if not accompanied by corresponding returns, could exert significant pressure on the market—particularly given its heavy weighting in S&P 500 components.

Note: Percentile is a statistical measure of position; the 99th percentile represents an extreme level, while the 50th percentile represents the median.

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