Foreign media report that after a noticeable decline this week, market sentiment and on-chain data have both weakened. The article suggests that although the price has approached key support levels, the current phase is more indicative of ongoing deleveraging and stop-loss liquidations rather than a completed bottoming process.
Weakening sentiment coincides with contracting demand
The article notes that Bitcoin has declined approximately 16% week-to-date, testing support near $60,000, as market risk appetite has clearly weakened. Santiment data shows that in late May, when Bitcoin approached $78,000, market sentiment was extremely optimistic, but quickly turned negative as the price broke below that level.
The article argues that extreme optimism at highs and extreme pessimism during declines are not unusual in themselves. What truly determines whether a bottom has formed is not whether panic emerges, but whether new buying pressure emerges to absorb the selling during the decline.
- Spot demand decreased by approximately 272,000 BTC over the past 30 days.
- Futures demand decreased by approximately 229,000 BTC
- Total demand has decreased to approximately 501,000 BTC
Losses exceed half, but buying pressure remains weak.
The article also notes that more than half of Bitcoin’s supply is currently in an unrealized loss. On-chain data shows that approximately 10.5 million BTC are in unrealized loss, while only about 9.8 million remain in unrealized profit. Historically, such phases often coincide with market bottom areas.
However, no clear long-term accumulation signs have been observed this time. The article suggests that the key issue is not whether there are enough loss-making positions, but whether buyers are willing to consistently absorb selling pressure during weakness. If demand is insufficient, further losses could instead continue to fuel selling.
Both long-term and short-term holders are releasing selling pressure.
Glassnode data shows that as Bitcoin retreated to around $62,000, the market's single-day realized loss rose to approximately $1.3 billion. Long-term holders accounted for about $770 million, or 59% of this total. This indicates that some funds purchased at cycle highs, which had previously been held, are now exiting at a loss.
The behavior of short-term holders is also weakening. CryptoQuant data shows that approximately 53,800 BTC flowed into exchanges from a loss position over the past 24 hours, while inflows from a profit position dropped nearly to zero. The article views this as the most pronounced loss-dominated short-term inflow since the beginning of the year.
- Daily realized losses amounted to approximately $1.3 billion.
- Long-term holders incurred losses of approximately $770 million.
- Approximately 53,800 BTC in losses flowed into exchanges over the past 24 hours.
Taking these signals together, the article suggests that Bitcoin is currently still in a phase where selling pressure has not been fully exhausted. Although the price has approached historical areas where buying interest typically emerges, contracting demand, rising loss-making supply, and increased selling pressure on exchanges indicate that a阶段性 bottom still lacks clearer confirmation.