Odaily Planet Daily report: According to an analysis report from CryptoQuant, internal demand in the Bitcoin market has significantly contracted in the first quarter of 2026. The overall 30-day net demand stood at -63,000 BTC, despite accelerated institutional buying (approximately 50,000 BTC via ETFs and around 44,000 BTC via Strategy), the market still saw net selling of approximately 157,000 BTC from retail investors, long-term whales, and miners.
Large holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) have shifted from the market’s largest buyers to its largest sellers, distributing approximately 188,000 BTC over the past year; medium holders (100–1,000 BTC) continue to buy, but their purchasing pace has declined by over 60% since October 2025. Bitcoin spot prices remain between $67,000 and $68,000, representing a roughly 21% premium over the weighted average cost of $54,286, indicating that most holders are still profitable and the market has not yet reached its bottom.
Market sentiment and capital flows are diverging: The Fear & Greed Index is in the extreme fear range (8–14), yet ETFs recorded net inflows exceeding $1 billion in March; the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, indicating limited U.S. institutional participation. Geopolitical volatility (Iran conflict) has caused repeated price fluctuations, leading market participants to adopt a wait-and-see stance, with overall demand gradually declining rather than through panic selling.
Although Bitcoin has dropped approximately 47% from its historical high of $126,000 in October 2025—far less than the 85%+ crashes seen in 2013 and 2017—Zack Wainwright notes that this reflects the growing maturity of the Bitcoin market, with volatility gradually narrowing.
Potential catalysts include Morgan Stanley’s approval of a low-fee Bitcoin ETF, which would provide access to $6.2 trillion in assets under management by 16,000 financial advisors, and the continued monthly purchase of 44,000 BTC by the Strategy STRC preferred stock product, potentially offering stable buying support. Short-term technical indicators suggest that if tensions in Iran ease, Bitcoin could rebound to $71,500–$81,200.
Based on relevant indicators, CryptoQuant concludes that internal demand in the Bitcoin market is contracting, and current price support relies on institutional ETFs, strategies, and new channels continuously absorbing selling pressure from retail investors and large holders. (CoinDesk)