For years, Bitcoin and tech stocks moved in lockstep, a tandem trade that became so reliable it was practically a meme. That relationship is fracturing, and the reason isn’t some crypto-specific crisis. It’s simpler than that: momentum traders found something shinier.
Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has dropped to 0.27, down from 0.55 at the start of the year. Its correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell to 0.27 from 0.38 over the same period.
The momentum trade has moved on
Bitcoin dipped to $65,385 in early June 2026, its lowest level since February. It has since clawed back slightly above $67,000, but the damage to sentiment is real.
Jay Hatfield has pointed out that momentum players are gravitating toward sectors with stronger immediate trends. Chip stocks, buoyed by relentless AI infrastructure spending, offer something Bitcoin currently doesn’t: a clear earnings narrative.
Gold and high-profile IPOs are also pulling capital from what used to be the default risk-on trade.
ETF outflows tell a painful story
Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows are estimated between $2.3 billion and $2.8 billion, a significant reversal from the enthusiasm that greeted these products when they launched.
Analysts aren’t blaming crypto-native factors for this exodus. It’s not about MicroStrategy selling or some exchange imploding or a regulatory crackdown. The cause is more mundane: Bitcoin simply isn’t where the fast money wants to be right now.
The Nasdaq connection holds, barely
Bitcoin’s connection to the broader Nasdaq-100 index remains around 0.45, which is actually above its 10-year average. So Bitcoin still trades like a risk asset in the macro sense, rising when liquidity is loose and falling when it tightens.
The divergence between Bitcoin’s Nasdaq correlation (still elevated) and its semiconductor correlation (halved) tells a specific story. Broad macro forces still push Bitcoin around, but the sector-specific momentum that used to amplify its rallies has redirected.
What this means for investors
Long-term holders continue to accumulate, and exchange balances remain low, both of which historically signal that supply is tight.
The declining correlation with tech subsectors offers a silver lining. If Bitcoin no longer moves in lockstep with SOXX or IGV, it arguably provides better diversification within a tech-heavy portfolio.
The $2.3 billion to $2.8 billion already gone in ETF outflows is significant, but not catastrophic. A sustained bleed toward $5 billion or more would pressure prices further and could trigger forced selling from leveraged positions. The 22% drawdown over the preceding month already suggests that leveraged longs have been getting squeezed.
Investors should also monitor whether Bitcoin’s Nasdaq-100 correlation starts declining too. Right now, at 0.45, it suggests Bitcoin still benefits from broad risk appetite.