Bitcoin Breaks $63,000, Targets $64,000 Amid Global Macroeconomic Developments

Huo Xing Finance reports that on July 10, global markets continued to price in three key themes simultaneously: Federal Reserve institutional reform, the U.S. AI capital race, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh officially announced five working groups focused on core areas including inflation, the balance sheet, economic data, productivity, and policy communication, incorporating participation from the technology industry, academia, and corporate leaders. This signals that markets must now pay attention not only to interest rate policy but also to whether the Fed’s broader decision-making framework is gradually shifting—such as reducing forward guidance, redefining economic data metrics, and adjusting balance sheet management. Future policy uncertainty may exceed that of the past several years. Meanwhile, capital expenditure in the AI sector continues to expand. OpenAI launched the GPT-5.6 series of models, Micron announced an increase in its U.S. investment to over $250 billion, and Meta denied claims of compute oversupply, emphasizing that compute leasing also holds commercial value. These developments indicate that major tech firms remain heavily invested in AI infrastructure, reinforcing AI as a critical global capital magnet. On the geopolitical front, U.S.-Iran tensions persist in a state of “coexisting military confrontation and technical negotiations.” Although both sides have conducted military operations and the ceasefire agreement has effectively collapsed, technical talks have not ceased, and the U.S. has not resumed full-scale military action. Oman has publicly opposed tolls on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting ongoing efforts by all parties to maintain energy transport stability and reduce the likelihood of full-scale conflict. Markets are currently pricing not in peace, but in the short-term possibility that global energy supply chains can continue functioning at a basic level. Additionally, Deutsche Bank noted that the structure of foreign capital inflows into the U.S. is gradually shifting from “buying U.S. Treasuries” to “buying U.S. equities.” The dollar’s stability is increasingly dependent on the AI industry’s cyclical performance rather than traditional safe-haven demand. If this trend continues, global capital flows will become more concentrated in high-growth-tech assets, implying that both dollar volatility and risk asset fluctuations may rise in tandem. In the crypto market, Bitcoin successfully broke above the $63,000 resistance level yesterday, triggering $79.5 million in long liquidations over the past 24 hours and pushing prices briefly toward $64,000. Currently, $64,000 remains the most critical short-term resistance level; if it holds firmly, it could signal further improvement in market risk appetite. Conversely, if the breakout fails, traders should remain alert to potential short-term volatility from profit-taking. Overall, the market is not rising due to the disappearance of negative catalysts but is instead readjusting risk premiums across asset classes against the backdrop of global institutional reform, expanding AI capital investment, and geopolitical risks that have yet to spiral out of control.