Bitcoin Hit a Low in Late November 2025, Suggests Historical Indicator

According to ChainCatcher, market data indicates that in late November 2025, Bitcoin dropped to nearly $80,000. At that time, the ratio of profitable short-term holder supply to loss-making short-term holder supply fell to a historically significant level typically associated with major or partial bear market bottoms. According to Glassnode data, the ratio dropped to 0.013. In the past, every time this level was reached, it marked a local bottom or the absolute low of a bear market, including in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022. Glassnode defines short-term holders as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. During the November low, the 7-day moving average of profitable short-term holder supply dropped to about 30,000 Bitcoin, while the loss-making supply surged to 2.45 million, the highest since the FTX collapse in November 2022, when Bitcoin hit a bottom near $15,000. Since early 2026, Bitcoin has rebounded to about $94,000, rising more than 7%. During this period, the loss-making short-term holder supply dropped to 1.9 million, while the profitable supply rebounded to 850,000, with a ratio of about 0.45. Historically, when this ratio approaches 1, it often breaks through and continues to expand, and Bitcoin prices tend to keep rising. Currently, the ratio is below 0.5%, indicating that the indicator still has significant room to expand before reaching balance. Market tops typically appear when this ratio rises close to 100.