BlockBeats News: On February 10, after a continuous decline in the crypto market since January 15, Bitcoin quickly dropped from $97,000 to just above $60,000. The market then experienced a corrective rebound, with Bitcoin rising back to around $70,000 and consolidating for several days since. Regarding the current confusing market trend, there is a high consensus among market opinions that the crypto bear market is in effect. As for predictions on the specific bottom level, BlockBeats summarizes the main viewpoints as follows:
Analyst @alicharts' prediction based on Bitcoin's historical data and technical indicators is as follows:Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average (currently at $58,000)This level has served multiple times as a bear market bottom and accumulation zone over the past 12 years. On the other hand, Bitcoin's historical bottoms are typically located near the -1.0 MVRV pricing zone.The current level is 52,040 US dollars.
Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish said that the Bitcoin long-term holder cost basis heatmap shows thatBitcoin has a dense support level above $60,000Long-term holders are highly concentrated here. Above that, supply is dense around $80,000, forming a key resistance level. This range defines the current supply chain competition landscape.
Peter Brandt, a well-known trader and chart analyst who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, posted on the 6th that if Bitcoin breaks through the "banana peel" support as in previous bear markets,The bottom may only be slightly below $42,000Brandt considers the lower edge curve of the Banana peel to be the strongest and most critical long-term support area for Bitcoin, with the bottoms of several major bear markets historically (2011, 2015, 2018, 2022) basically closely approaching or slightly breaking below this line. (It is worth noting that the special aspect of this Bitcoin cycle is that it has never successfully touched the upper edge of the banana line during the uptrend.)
Chinese on-chain analyst Murphy, combining on-chain indicators CVDD (Cumulative Value Coin Day Destroyed Index), pointed out that,The current CVDD is $44,904, and it continues to rise at a dynamic rate of an average of $540 every 30 days. That is to say, there is a very high probability that the bottom of this bear market will not fall below $45,000, but will only approach it infinitely closely.
Coin Bureau CEO Nic made a prediction about the duration of the crypto bear market: Bitcoin has closed below the 100-week moving average for the third consecutive week. Currently, the price has been below the long-term trend line for 13 consecutive days.According to historical data, after BTC breaks below the long-term trend line, it averages 267 days remaining below this level.The shortest one was 34 days during the COVID-19 pandemic.