Original Title: "A Book About Bitcoin from 8 Years Ago Is Now 'Predicting' the Silver Crash?"
Original Author: David, DeepTide TechFlow
In 2020, after reading a book, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor decided to purchase $425 million worth of Bitcoin.
This book is called "The Bitcoin StandardPublished in 2018, it has been translated into 39 languages, sold over a million copies, and is revered by Bitcoin enthusiasts as the "Bible."
The author, Saifedean Ammous, is a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University. His central argument is only one:
Bitcoin is a "hard currency" harder than gold.
At the same time, the original quote from Michael Saylor's recommendation on the book's promotional page is:
"This book is a masterpiece. After finishing it, I decided to buy $425 million worth of Bitcoin. It had the most significant impact on MicroStrategy's way of thinking, leading us to shift our balance sheet toward Bitcoin."
But there is a chapter in this book that isn't about Bitcoin. It discusses why silver can't become hard money.
Eight years later, silver has just surged to a historic high of $117, and the investment frenzy in precious metals continues. Even Hyperliquid and several CEX platforms have started launching futures contracts for precious metals in various forms.
At such times, there's often someone who plays the role of a whistleblower or contrarian to highlight the risks, especially in an environment where everything is rising except Bitcoin.
For example, a widely shared post on encrypted Twitter today was one in which someone cited this book, providing a screenshot of page 23, with a highlighted paragraph that read:
Every silver bubble will burst, and the next one will be no exception.
History of Silver Speculation
Don't rush to criticize yet; let's take a look at what the core argument actually is.
The core argument in this book is actually called the stock-to-flow ratio. BTC OGs should have heard of this theory to some extent.
In plain terms, for something to become "hard currency,"It all depends on how difficult it is to increase production..
Gold is difficult to mine. The global above-ground gold stock is approximately 200,000 tons, and the annual production increase is less than 3,500 tons. Even if gold prices were to double, miners cannot suddenly produce twice as much gold. This is called "supply inelasticity."
Bitcoin is more extreme. The maximum supply is permanently capped at 21 million coins, and the block reward halves every four years. No one can alter the code. This creates scarcity through algorithms.
Where is the silver?
The highlighted passage in the book roughly means:The silver bubble has burst before, and it will burst again. Because once a large amount of capital flows into silver, miners can easily increase supply and drive the price down, causing savers' wealth to evaporate.
The author also gave an example: the Hunt brothers.
In the late 1970s, Texas oil tycoons the Hunt brothers decided to corner the silver market. They purchased billions of dollars worth of silver and futures contracts, driving the price from $6 to $50 per ounce, which at the time set a historical record for silver prices.
Then what happened? Silver miners desperately sold their silver, trading platforms raised margin requirements, and the silver price crashed. The Hunt brothers lost over 1 billion U.S. dollars and eventually went bankrupt.
Therefore, the author's conclusion is:
Silver has too high a supply elasticity, making it inherently unsuitable as a store of value. Every time someone tries to hoard it as "hard money," the market responds by increasing production, thereby teaching them a lesson.
This logic was written back in 2018, when silver was $15 per ounce. Not many people cared.
Is this round of silver different?
For the logic about silver mentioned above to hold, there is a prerequisite: when the price of silver rises, the supply can keep up.
However, 25 years of data tell another story.
Global silver mine production peaked in 2016 at approximately 900 million ounces. By 2025, this figure had dropped to 835 million ounces. The price increased sevenfold, while production actually declined by 7%.
Why has the logic of "price increases lead to increased production" stopped working?
A structural reason is that approximately 75% of silver is produced as a by-product of mining copper, zinc, and lead. Mining companies' production decisions depend on the prices of these base metals, not on the price of silver. Even if the price of silver doubles while the price of copper remains unchanged, mines will not increase production.
Another reason could be time. A new mine project typically takes 8 to 12 years to move from exploration to production. Even if construction began immediately, no new supply would become available before 2030.
The result is a supply deficit for five consecutive years. According to data from the Silver Institute, the global silver deficit from 2021 to 2025 will approach 820 million ounces, which is nearly equivalent to the entire annual global mine production.
At the same time, silver inventories are also running low. The deliverable silver inventory held by the London Bullion Market Association has dropped to just 155 million ounces. The silver lending rate has surged from 0.3%-0.5% in normal years to 8%, meaning that some are willing to pay an annualized cost of 8% just to ensure they can obtain physical silver.
There is another new variable. Starting from January 1, 2026, China will impose export restrictions on refined silver, granting export licenses only to state-owned large-scale factories with an annual production capacity exceeding 80 tons. Small and medium-sized exporters will be directly excluded.
In Hunt brothers' era, miners and holders could crash the market by increasing production and dumping their holdings.
This time, the supply side may not have enough bullets left.
It's speculation, but also a necessity.
When the Hunt brothers were stockpiling silver, silver was a monetary speculative commodity. Buyers were thinking: the price will rise, so they stockpiled it in anticipation of selling later.
The silver bull market in 2025 will have entirely different drivers.
Let's first look at a set of data. According to the World Silver Survey 2025, industrial demand for silver reached 680.5 million ounces in 2024, a record high. This figure accounts for more than 60% of the global total demand.
What are industrial demands buying?
Photovoltaic (PVEach solar panel requires silver paste to form a conductive layer. The International Energy Agency predicts that global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity will quadruple by 2030. The PV industry is already the largest single industrial buyer of silver.
Electric vehicleA traditional internal combustion engine vehicle uses about 15-28 grams of silver. An electric vehicle uses 25-50 grams, and even more for high-end models. Silver is used everywhere, including in the battery management system, motor controller, and charging interface.
AI and Data CentersServers, chip packaging, and high-frequency connectors all require silver for its unmatched electrical and thermal conductivity. Demand in this area is accelerating starting in 2024, and the Silver Institute has specifically highlighted "AI-related applications" in its reports.
In 2025, the U.S. Department of the Interior added silver to the list of "critical minerals." The last time this list was updated, lithium and rare earth elements were added.
Of course, maintaining a high price for silver will lead to a "silver conservation" effect. For example, some photovoltaic manufacturers are already reducing the amount of silver paste used per solar panel. However, according to the Silver Institute's forecast, even when considering this conservation effect, industrial demand will remain near record levels in the next 1-2 years.
This is essentially a matter of inelastic demand, a variable that Saifedean might not have anticipated when he wrote The Bitcoin Standard.
A book can also provide psychological comfort.
The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" has recently been quiet in the face of real gold and silver.
The market refers to this year as the "Debasement Trade": the U.S. dollar weakens, inflation expectations rise, and geopolitical tensions escalate, prompting capital to flow into hard assets for safety. However, this wave of risk-averse capital has chosen gold and silver, not Bitcoin.
This requires an explanation for Bitcoin maximalists.
Therefore, the book above became a kind of authoritative reference and defense of a position: silver is rising now because of a bubble, and when it crashes, you'll know who was right.
This is more like a narrative form of self-rescue.
When the assets you hold underperform the market for an entire year, you need a framework to explain "why I'm still right."
Short-term prices don't matter; long-term logic is what counts. The logic behind silver is wrong, while the logic behind Bitcoin is right. Therefore, Bitcoin will inevitably outperform—it's just a matter of time.
Is this logic self-consistent? Yes, it is self-consistent. Can it be falsified? It's difficult.
Because you can always say "the time isn't long enough."
The problem is, the real world doesn't wait for anyone. Brothers who are holding a lot of Bitcoin and altcoins and still sticking with the crypto space are really feeling anxious.
Bitcoin theories written 8 years ago cannot automatically override the reality of no increase 8 years later.
Silver is still running wild, and we also sincerely wish Bitcoin good luck.
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