Bitcoin and HYPE Face Key Technical Levels Amid Ongoing Volatility

This week, the market is navigating through volatility, with opportunities and risks coexisting. The HYPE daily chart's Wave V structure is approaching a critical validation point, where the success or failure of the $40.17 support will determine the next directional move. Meanwhile, BTC is caught between the continuation of its Wave D rebound and resistance pressure, with the key battleground remaining the $73,500–$79,000 range.

Go with the trend and strictly adhere to discipline to move steadily through complex market conditions.

This week's key trading insights summary:

• Current price structure analysis of HYPE. (See Part One for details.)

• HYPE Weekly Market Outlook and Short-Term Trading Strategy. (See Part Two for details.)

• Multi-timeframe trend structure analysis of BTC. (See Part Three for details)

• BTC this week's market outlook and medium- to short-term trading strategies. (See Part Four for details.)

Last week’s trading strategy and core viewpoints market validation:

• HYPE Short-Term Trading Performance: HYPE executed a short-term long position (1x leverage) last week, achieving a cumulative profit of approximately 6.80%. (See Table 1 for details.)

• HYPE Price Movement Forecast Verified by Market Action: In our earlier article, we noted that the rebound of HYPE from its April 2 low of $34.44 exhibited the structural characteristics of a potential fifth wave on the daily chart. The current market movement has confirmed our prior analysis. Last week, the market rebound reached a high of $45.75, successfully breaking above the $43.78 high of the March 18 third wave and establishing a new high for this uptrend.

• Medium-term BTC trading performance validation: Last week, Bitcoin followed the established medium-term strategy, maintaining a short position opened at $89,000 (1x leverage). By the close of last week (approximately $73,800), the position achieved a profit of approximately 17.08%, with a peak profit of about 32.58% during the period.

• BTC Price Trend Forecast Verified by Market Action: In last week’s article, we stated that the market would remain in a wide-ranging consolidation phase. The current market movement has confirmed our earlier forecast.

HYPE 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 1

1. As shown in Figure 1, HYPE reached a new high of $45.76 on April 16, surpassing the previous peak of $43.78 on March 18 (i.e., the high of Wave III) and establishing a new rebound high since the January 21 low of $20.46. Therefore, the upward movement that began at the April 2 low of $34.44 can be temporarily regarded as an ongoing fifth wave (Wave V) on the daily chart.

2. As shown in Figure 1, the above daily Wave V can be further subdivided within the 4-hour timeframe into a rising structure consisting of four segments: 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, and 31-32.

3. The current market is in the 31-32 adjustment phase.

• Within HYPY’s 4-hour structure, our proprietary momentum quant model detected that both momentum signal lines have moved in sync below the zero line, suggesting a potential extension of the current corrective phase.

• The potential adjustment endpoint (Endpoint 32) is now approaching the prior support level of $40.17 (Endpoint 30).

1. HYPE Weekly Price Movement Forecast:

As shown in (Figure 1), monitor whether endpoint 32 falls below endpoint 30 (i.e., $40.17):

• If held above, price will continue trading within the $40.17–$45.76 range;

• If this support level is broken and the subsequent rebound fails to exceed $45.76 (i.e., endpoint 31), it forms a classic technical pattern: “a pullback breaking a prior low, followed by a rebound that fails to make a new high.” This would suggest that the daily-level Wave V upward structure, which began at the April 2 low, has likely concluded at $45.76.

2. HYPE This Week's Short-Term Trading Strategy:

• Based on the expectation of an overall upward trend, follow the strategy of "going with the trend and buying on dips."

• Based on signals from our proprietary quantitative model, with a 30-minute/60-minute trading cycle, use a 30% position size to capture long entry opportunities.

• Opening Strategy: HYPE faced a need for adjustment at the beginning of this week. If the price rebounds near the key support level of $40.17 and shows confirmation of holding above this support, combined with buy signals triggered by two major models, consider entering a long position while strictly adhering to stop-loss discipline.

1. Wave Structure on the BTC Daily Chart: (Based on the price action following the high on October 6, 2025)

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 2

As shown in Figure 2, since the rebound from Bitcoin’s low of $60,000 on February 6, the price has not only reached a new rebound high of $78,333 on April 17 but has also been trending for approximately 73 trading days as of April 19—significantly exceeding both the duration and magnitude originally anticipated for a C-2 wave rebound within the broader C-wave correction (for instance, its rebound duration far surpasses the 54-day B-wave rebound). Therefore, based on Elliott Wave theory principles, the original framework may require adjustment. We are more inclined to reclassify this rally, starting from $60,000, as a larger-scale D-wave rebound, which better aligns with the current market reality of time-for-space substitution and an extended rebound cycle.

The specific intermediate corrective wave structure can be optimized as follows:

• Wave A correction (impulsive decline): Began at the high of $126,200 on October 6, 2025, and ended at the low of $80,600 on November 21, 2025, lasting approximately 46 days with a maximum decline of about 36%. This wave established the intermediate-term corrective structure.

• Wave B rebound (complex correction): Began at the low of $80,600 on November 21, 2025, and ended at the high of $97,924 on January 14, 2026, lasting approximately 54 days with a maximum gain of about 21.5%. This is a correction against Wave A decline.

• Wave C correction (main decline): Began at the high of $97,924 on January 14, 2026, and reached a low of $60,000 on February 6, 2026, in a sharp decline over approximately 22 days, with a maximum drop of about 38.7%. This wave completed the primary corrective move in terms of price space.

• D-wave rebound (currently ongoing / possibly incomplete): Beginning at the low of $60,000 on February 6, 2026, and as of April 19, it has lasted approximately 73 days with a maximum gain of about 30.6% (from $60,000 to $78,333). This rebound is characterized by an extended duration and complex structure, and is currently facing critical time windows and price resistance zones (such as $79,000–$80,600). If the D-wave is confirmed, a corresponding E-wave correction may follow after the rebound concludes.

2. BTC: In-depth Analysis of Price Structure

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 3

• Based on the price movement following the March 30 low of $65,000.

• As shown in Figure 3, BTC has initiated an upward oscillating trend since the low on March 30. From endpoint 18 to endpoint 24, the structure consists of six segments: 18-19, 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, 22-23, and 23-24.

• The chart shows that since endpoint 18 to endpoint 23, the price has completed a clear five-wave rally structure and is currently in the 23-24 phase. Our proprietary spread trading model has repeatedly issued top warning signals (green and white dots in the chart), indicating that technical indicators are in a severely overbought condition, suggesting a near-term need for price consolidation or correction.

1. BTC Weekly Price Movement Forecast:

• Key Insights This Week:

Currently trading in a range of $73,500 to $79,000, watch for battles between bulls and bears near the upper and lower boundaries of this range. If the price rebounds and breaks above the upper boundary, the market may experience a limited upward correction. However, if the price effectively breaks below the lower boundary, it could decline further toward the key support level around $69,500.

2. Key Resistance Level:

• First resistance zone: $79,000–$80,600 area (near the November 2025 low)

• Second resistance zone: $83,500–$84,500 range (previous area of high trading volume between longs and shorts)

3. Key Support Level:

• First support level: around $73,500 (previous key support level)

• Second support level: around $69,500 (previous key support level)

• Third support level: $65,000–$66,000 range (near the lower boundary of the trading range)

4. This Week’s Trading Strategy (excluding the impact of sudden news): (04.20～04.26)

①. Medium-term strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 4

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 4, the current price is oscillating near the long-short ribbon. Based on our strategy rules, we are maintaining our 60% short position established at $89,000 (January 28).

• If the coin price effectively rebounds and holds above the Bollinger Bands this week, close all medium-term positions.

② Short-term strategy: Use 30% of your position, set a stop-loss level, and identify spread opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use a 30-minute or 60-minute time frame for trading.)

③ Based on the expectation of a medium-term bearish market trend, we should adhere to the principle of "trading in the direction of the trend" by taking short positions. To dynamically respond to the market's complex evolution and in conjunction with signals from our proprietary trading model, we have prepared two short-term trading strategies, Plan A and Plan B:

• Option A: Sell on rallies when resistance is encountered.

• Open Position: When the price rebounds to the $76,500–$79,000 range and triggers a resistance signal combined with a model top signal, establish a 30% short position.

• Risk Management: Initial stop-loss level set above $80,600.

• Close Position: When the asset price approaches a key support level in conjunction with model signals, gradually close your position to realize profits.

• Option B: Short position on breakout with the trend.

• Open Position: As the price continues to adjust, if the price effectively breaks below the support near $73,500 and is confirmed by a model top signal, consider establishing a 30% short position.

• Risk Management: Initial stop-loss set above $74,500.

• Close Position: When the price declines to the support level and aligns with model signals, gradually close your position to realize profits.

1. Short-term Trading Review: (See Table 1)

We strictly followed our operational protocol and executed a short-term (long) trade last week based on trading signals generated by our proprietary spread trading model and momentum quantification model, achieving a cumulative profit of 6.80%.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Activity Summary: (Leverage * 1x)

Table 1

3. Short-Term Trading Review: (See Figure 5)

• Entry Strategy: First, based on the assessment of a fifth-wave upward trend in the market; second, the spread trading model had already issued a bottom warning signal (indicated by the green dot in the chart); third, both momentum lines in the momentum model moved synchronously above the zero line, and both models generated a confirmed bullish signal. We established a 30% long position at $41.59.

• Close-out Strategy: When the price approached $45 and encountered resistance, while the spread trading model triggered a strong top warning signal (green dot + white dot), we closed our entire position near $44.42.

• Summary: This transaction resulted in a successful profit of approximately 6.80%.

HYPE 60-minute K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 5 (Short-term Trading Diagram)

1. When opening a position: Set the initial stop-loss immediately.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry price (breakeven point) to secure your principal.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the breakeven point at 1% profit.

4. Continuous Tracking: For every additional 1% profit in the coin price, the stop-loss level will move up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are constantly changing; all market analyses and trading strategies must be adjusted dynamically. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are based on personal technical analysis and are intended solely for personal trading logs. They do not constitute any investment advice or basis for action. The market carries risks; invest with caution. Do not make decisions based on this information.