PlanB sees greater than fifty percent probability Bitcoin falls below key supports and could drop to $60K.
Bitcoin derivatives market remains weakened after October's massive $11 billion liquidation.
Analyst Ted Pillow warns losing $70,000 could accelerate Bitcoin's ongoing downtrend.
Bitcoin, the pioneer cryptocurrency in the world, closed its May month in the red with BTC price dropping by -3.41%. While Bitcoin ended May at $73,568, popular Bitcoin analyst PlanB has suggested that the recent market decline may not be over.
He said that weakening derivatives activity and fragile market sentiment could push Bitcoin back toward its February low of around $60,000.
Bitcoin’s Bottom May Not Be In Yet
According to PlanB, the market remains split on whether the February correction near $60,000 marked the bottom of this cycle or if a deeper decline still lies ahead. Based on his reading of the data, he believes Bitcoin has not yet formed a convincing bottom and sees a greater than 50% probability that prices move lower.
PlanB based his view on a chart that looks at how much of the Bitcoin supply is currently in profit. In past cycles, major market bottoms usually happened when only a small share of Bitcoin holders were in profit, as most investors were at a loss and market fear was high.
However, the current data still shows a higher percentage of holders in profit compared to those past bottom periods.
Because of this, PlanB believes the market has not yet reached full panic or “capitulation,” which is often seen near the end of bear markets. He says this means there is still a higher chance of more downside before a strong bottom is formed.
Key Levels to Watch
The chart also compares Bitcoin’s price with two important long-term indicators: the 200-week moving average and the realized price. The 200-week moving average, currently around $61,000, has often acted as a strong support level in past bear markets.
The realized price, near $53,000, shows the average price at which all Bitcoin was last moved and reflects the overall cost basis of the market.
PlanB says that if Bitcoin moves toward these levels, it would better match the kind of bottom patterns seen in previous market cycles.
Why is $70,000 becoming a Key Level?
Another widely followed trader, Ted Pillow, believes Bitcoin is approaching a critical support zone.
According to him, a daily close below $70,000 could accelerate the current downtrend and trigger additional selling pressure. That level has repeatedly acted as support during recent market weakness, making it a key area traders are closely monitoring.
Losing it could weaken confidence further and encourage short-term traders to reduce exposure.
The Real Concern: Bitcoin’s Derivatives Market Hasn’t Recovered
The bigger issue may not be the prediction itself but what is happening underneath the market.
Bitcoin’s derivatives sector is still recovering from the massive liquidation event which occurred on October 10, when nearly 71,000 BTC disappeared (worth around $11 billion) from open interest across major exchanges.
Before the event, total Bitcoin open interest stood near 375,000 BTC. Today, it remains around 351,000 BTC, leaving a gap of more than 24,000 BTC. The data suggests many traders remain cautious and have yet to fully rebuild their exposure.
This is one reason some analysts believe downside risks remain elevated despite Bitcoin holding above key support levels.