BlockBeats report: On June 15, Bernstein analyst David Dai and others stated in a report that South Korea’s semiconductor equipment imports declined by 5% month-over-month in May, but the year-to-date year-over-year growth rate further increased to 39%. The firm believes that import data strongly correlates with the combined capital expenditures of Samsung and SK hynix; although both companies saw a quarter-over-quarter decline in Q1 capital spending, this primarily reflects seasonal factors and the pace of prior infrastructure investments, with future spending expected to recover.
The report shows that South Korea’s imports of lithography equipment from the Netherlands reached €928 million in May, up 28% month-over-month and approximately 150% year-over-year, marking the second-highest level for the second month of a quarter on record. Bernstein estimates that ASML’s system sales in South Korea during the second quarter amounted to approximately €2.31 billion, more than doubling year-over-year. Analysts say this momentum may be supported by DRAM capacity expansion and the accelerated adoption of the 1c node, which demands higher lithography equipment intensity.
Test equipment also released positive signals. South Korea’s imports of test equipment from Japan and Malaysia increased 103% year-over-year and 5% month-over-month in May. Bernstein’s regression model suggests that Advantest’s sales in South Korea could rise 84% month-over-month in the second quarter, significantly exceeding the market’s expectation of a 3% month-over-month growth in its overall revenue.
However, not all equipment manufacturers' data were equally strong. South Korean imports of wafer fabrication equipment related to Tokyo Electron fell 27% month-over-month in May. Bernstein expects the company’s second-quarter sales in South Korea to decline by 15% quarter-over-quarter, below the market’s expectation of flat sequential revenue.
Bernstein maintains an "Outperform" rating on ASML, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Samsung Electronics, and SK hynix. The report suggests that the storage investment cycle driven by AI continues to propagate upstream along the equipment supply chain, with the most pronounced momentum in lithography, testing, and advanced DRAM capacity expansion segments.