Bernstein Reaffirms $67 Price Target for Figure, Identifies 72% Upside Potential

ChainCatcher report: Bernstein reaffirms its “Outperform” rating on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) and maintains a target price of $67, implying approximately a 72% upside from the current share price of $38.97. Figure’s Q1 2026 performance was strong: loan originations reached $2.9 billion, up 113% year-over-year; adjusted revenue was $167 million, up 92% year-over-year and 6% above market expectations; adjusted EBITDA was $82.7 million, with a margin of approximately 50%, slightly above estimates. However, GAAP diluted EPS came in at $0.18, about 9% below expectations, primarily due to a $26 million stock-based compensation expense. Bernstein’s analysis suggests this earnings report should reshape market perceptions of Figure—not as a traditional lending company, but as a “tokenization-driven capital markets platform,” with core profitability driven by network fees and operational scale leverage. The firm maintains its valuation model based on a 25x multiple on 2027 EBITDA. Additionally, the tokenization ecosystem continues to expand: YLDS, the yield-bearing security token, reached $598 million in size (up 80% sequentially); stock lending product balances stood at $368 million (up 79%); and small business lending generated $60 million in revenue. Figure’s current share price remains close to its 2025 IPO offering price of $36 but is still significantly below its historical high of $78.