BlockBeats news, on June 22, Wall Street investment bank Bernstein stated that the rising prices of memory chips are spreading from consumer electronics to AI infrastructure and may force major cloud providers to reassess the return on investment for AI data centers.
In a report released on June 22, Bernstein stated that traditional DRAM prices have risen approximately 4.5 times since the third quarter of 2025, while HBM prices, locked in under annual contracts, have not yet been adjusted accordingly. This has resulted in significantly higher wafer revenue and gross margins for traditional DRAM compared to HBM, prompting memory manufacturers to renegotiate HBM prices for 2027 with GPU/XPU manufacturers. The firm expects HBM prices to increase by 2 to 2.5 times next year.
The report suggests that HBM price increases may be further amplified by AI accelerator manufacturers. For example, Nvidia may need to pass on approximately four times the increased HBM costs to customers if it aims to maintain a 75% gross margin. Bernstein estimates that, in the Vera Rubin NVL72 rack, HBM price hikes and markups could increase total capital expenditures for AI data centers by about 15%; when combined with rising prices for traditional DRAM and NAND, the total impact approaches 30%.
Bernstein believes that cloud providers will continue to invest in AI, but rising costs mean that a "rebalancing" is inevitable, potentially leading to adjustments in supply chain pricing, customer cost allocation, and even token prices.
The institution maintains 'Outperform' ratings on Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron, and significantly raises its price targets: Samsung Electronics common stock from KRW 225,000 to KRW 440,000, SK Hynix from KRW 1,150,000 to KRW 3,300,000, and Micron from USD 510 to USD 1,300. Bernstein’s 2027 EPS estimates for the three companies are approximately 26%, 32%, and 38% above the consensus market expectations, respectively.
The report also states that Samsung may have gained a lead in HBM4 technology and is poised to expand its market share. However, an increased share of HBM does not necessarily translate to higher profits, as current traditional DRAM remains more profitable.
Bernstein maintains its "Underperform" rating on KIOXIA due to its lack of HBM business; it reaffirms its "Outperform" rating on MediaTek, suggesting that if cloud providers shift to directly purchasing HBM to avoid price markups from GPU/XPU vendors, Asian ASIC service providers could benefit.
The report warns that a cyclical downturn could still occur by 2028. However, even with price normalization, Bernstein expects the DRAM industry's gross margin to remain around 70%, higher than peaks during most historical upcycles.