Analysts at Bernstein maintain an "Outperform" rating on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) with a price target of $190, noting that... $222 million ARC token presale and a solid supply of USD cash can offset the decline in interest income.
According to The Block, Circle's stock closed at $131.76 on Monday. CRCL price page Bernstein's target price implies approximately a 44% upside from this level.
On Tuesday, an analyst team led by Gautam Chhugani noted in a client report that ARC’s transaction provides Circle with a short-term buffer, as Circle’s reserve income declined by 11% quarter-over-quarter due to weakening interest rates, while adjusted EBITDA came in at $151 million, approximately 10% above consensus expectations.
Analysts noted that first-quarter revenue of $694 million was about 4% below expectations, primarily due to lower reserve income, but highlighted that strong adjusted EBITDA growth and stable cost controls supported near-term financial visibility.
In the first quarter, the USDC supply reached $77 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase and a 2% quarter-over-quarter increase. Bernstein noted that despite the broader cryptocurrency market declining by approximately 40% since October 2025, USDC balances on the Circle platform rose to $13.7 billion, accounting for 18% of total supply.
According to the report, Circle’s payment infrastructure and distribution network continue to scale, with the Circle Payments Network reaching nearly $10 billion in annualized transaction volume as of May 7, and 136 financial institutions now onboarded. Other notable partnerships include collaborations with Meta, DoorDash, and Kyriba.
Bernstein also highlighted the upcoming mainnet launch of Circle’s Layer 1 blockchain, Arc. Arc has processed over 244 million transactions on its testnet and supported 1.6 million unique wallets. Analysts note that Arc’s “agent” tech stack, particularly the open x402 standard for machine-to-machine micropayments, enables USDC to facilitate payment information for AI-driven software agents.
Outlook and Rating
The report notes that Circle’s fiscal year 2026 guidance remains unchanged, with USDC supply expected to grow at a 40% compound annual growth rate and non-operating income projected to range between $150 million and $170 million. The current guidance does not include the financial impact of the $222 million ARC token presale, which Bernstein notes will be recognized as other income upon token delivery.
Bernstein reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating, noting that growth in USDC's original supply and increased blockchain transaction fee revenue offset sensitivity to short-term interest rate declines. The brokerage highlighted that USDC currently accounts for over 99% of all global proxy payment settlements based on the x402 protocol.
Gautam Chhugani holds long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Over the past 12 months, certain affiliated companies of Bernstein have been compensated for providing investment banking and non-investment banking services to Circle.