Despite Coinbase's modest first-quarter earnings report, Benchmark Equity analysts reiterated a "Buy" rating on Coinbase stock in a research report released on Tuesday, raising the target price from $260 to $270.
Analysts say Coinbase (COIN) is gradually delivering on its promise to become a so-called "everything exchange," evolving from a crypto exchange reliant on markets into a core infrastructure provider for the thriving "on-chain economy."
They wrote: “We believe that COIN’s current positioning is less as a cyclical cryptocurrency brokerage platform and more as a foundational infrastructure platform for an emerging on-chain economy. Stablecoins, crypto derivatives, tokenization, decentralized finance (DeFi), payments, prediction markets, and AI-native commerce are all at different stages of development within the company’s ecosystem.”
Last week, Coinbase reported that the company expects a net loss of $394 million for the first quarter of 2026, with revenue of just $755.8 million, significantly below expectations. On a non-GAAP basis, adjusted EBITDA was $303.3 million, down from $929.9 million in the first quarter of 2025. As a result, COIN shares fell 6%.
Also early last week, prior to the earnings report, Coinbase announced... 14% workforce reduction.
Still growing
Despite Coinbase's revenue and EBITDA falling short of expectations, and declines in trading, subscription, and service income, Benchmark noted that the company still gained market share even amid a weak cryptocurrency market. The exchange's global cryptocurrency trading volume share reached a record high of 8.6%.
In addition, the exchange has recorded net inflows for the 12th consecutive quarter, with the total asset value on the platform now approximately $294 billion.
Analysts say: "This dynamic is important because COIN's strategy is increasingly centered on leveraging trust, custody, liquidity, and compliance infrastructure as foundational advantages to expand into adjacent financial products and services."
Benchmark also noted that Coinbase's product line continues to grow, with 12 profitable businesses each generating approximately $100 million in annualized revenue. Notably, derivatives business set a new quarterly record, and Coinbase currently accounts for about 50% of the total economic size of the USDC stablecoin.
The Ethereum scaling layer Base, incubated by this exchange, also appears to be “undervalued.” Analysts note that stablecoin trading volume on the blockchain has increased tenfold year-over-year, and Base may also benefit from its growing integration in the “agent economy” and DeFi spaces.
Analysts wrote, "Improved regulatory conditions for cryptocurrencies could be COIN's biggest catalyst," noting that Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal expressed confidence that the CLARITY Act could become law by late summer 2026.
Benchmark stated: "Management emphasized that comprehensive market structure legislation can unlock significant institutional participation in tokenization, custody, stablecoins, lending, and cryptocurrency financial services."
Benchmark is not the only company bullish on Coinbase’s future prospects. Rosenblatt Securities and Bernstein share the same view. Reiterated their buy ratings last week.
Although Mizuho Securities did not revise its “neutral” rating on Coinbase in its report on Tuesday, the firm countered by noting that most of Coinbase’s potential upside has already been priced in by the market. Notably, Mizuho Securities stated that Coinbase’s significant lead over competitors like Robinhood in the non-professional trader market is narrowing and is projected to drop to “approximately 51% in the first quarter of 2026,” its lowest measured level.
Mizuho Securities stated: “We value COIN at approximately 17 times its adjusted EBITDA for 2027, with a target price of $200. This valuation carries a significant premium compared to peers in payments, exchanges, and asset management; however, we believe it is justified due to COIN’s expanding product portfolio, improved cost controls (following recent restructuring), and longer-term tailwinds from regulatory clarity and cryptocurrency adoption, which enhance its valuation competitiveness. Nevertheless, the stock is currently trading at approximately 17 times expected 2027 earnings, suggesting that much of this upside has already been priced in.”