Odaily Planet Daily News: Barclays Bank interest rate strategists in a research report forecast that the U.S. Treasury will maintain the issuance volume of coupon-bearing bonds in the next quarter and throughout the 2026 fiscal year. Analyst Dhiraj Narula noted that this forecast aligns with previous policy guidance, indicating that the bond issuance volume has remained stable for two full years since the last increase in issuance in February to April 2024. In the report, Narula emphasized that the U.S. underlying fiscal situation remains severe. He pointed out, "An annual deficit of nearly $2 trillion continues to place pressure on the U.S. Treasury in terms of debt issuance." Although the current forecast suggests no change in the scale, Narula reminded that the U.S. Treasury stated in November last year that it had "begun preliminary consideration of increasing" auction volumes in the future. Therefore, the upcoming quarterly refinancing announcement may reveal the latest developments on these expansion plans. (Jinshi)
Barclays Predicts U.S. Treasury Bond Issuance to Remain Stable for Two Consecutive Years
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Summary
Barclays analysts projected that the U.S. Treasury will maintain a steady issuance of coupon-bearing bonds in Q1 and through 2026. Dhiraj Narula noted that the scale has not changed for two years since the last increase in early 2024. The U.S. fiscal deficit is approaching $2 trillion annually, putting pressure on debt issuance. In November 2024, the Treasury mentioned it is considering future CFT-related measures and potential alignment with MiCA. The next refinancing report may indicate whether plans for increased auction volumes are underway.
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