Key Insights
- Avalanche price remains under pressure despite the soaring burn rate.
- The number of burned tokens is approaching the 5 million milestone.
- Technical analysis suggests that the token has more downside to go.
Avalanche price has slumped into a technical bear market and is hovering near its lowest level since November 2023. It was trading at $13.78 on Tuesday, down by 90% from its all-time high and 78% below its highest point in 2024.
Technicals suggest that AVAX price has more downside to go despite its rising token burn rate and the upcoming ETF launch.
AVAX Burn Rate is Nearing the 5 Million Milestone
Avalanche price has plunged in the past few months and has underperformed other similar tokens like Solana and Ethereum.
The crash happened even as more tokens continued being removed from the market through its burn mechanism. This incinerates most of the on-chain fees.
Data shows that Avalanche has burned 4,9990,093 AVAX tokens, currently valued at over $68 million. These tokens have been permanently removed from the network. Also, the trend will continue, reaching the 5 million milestone in the next few months.
In theory, a token burn should boost a coin’s price by lowering its inflation. However, in reality, there is usually no direct correlation between a coin’s price and the burn rate. For example, the Shiba Inu price has slumped despite the network burning millions of tokens every day.
Another reason why Avalanche’s burn rate has had minimal impact is its daily token unlocks. This boosts the circulating supply.
Data shows that the network unlocks 1.6 million tokens daily, a process that will continue until 2030. That’s because it has a maximum supply of 715 million coins against a circulating supply of 462 million.
Avalanche’s Transactions are Rising Ahead of the AVAX ETF Launch
Data compiled by Nansen shows that Avalanche has become one of the fastest-growing networks in the crypto industry. This growth has accelerated because of some of the recently announced partnerships by companies and organizations like Toyota, FIFA, and Skybridge Capital.
Avalanche’s transactions rose to 65 million in the last 30 days, higher than Ethereum’s 54 million. Additionally, its active addresses rose by 58% to 668,904 in the same period.
More data shows that the number of smart contracts deployed on the network continued growing. They rose to a record high of 33 million in 2025, a 5,700% increase from 2024
Avalanche has also become a big name in the stablecoin industry. It is expected to keep growing after the signing of the GENIUS Act.
The stablecoin supply in Avalanche’s C-Chain rose to $1.7 billion. At the same time, the adjusted transaction volume jumped to $59.8 billion in the last 30 days. In total, the network handled over 221 million stablecoin transactions in the last 30 days.
The next potential catalyst for the Avalanche price is the upcoming launch of a spot AVAX ETF. Grayscale has filed for a Grayscale Avalanche Trust. This will likely start trading in the next few weeks or months, potentially leading to higher demand.
However, data shows that not all altcoin ETFs are in demand. Some, like HBAR, Dogecoin, and Litecoin, often go for days without any inflow.
Avalanche Price Technical Analysis
The weekly chart shows that the AVAX price has been under pressure since 2024. It has dropped from $65.09 to the current $13.7.
The coin recently dropped below the key support level at $15.40. That was its lowest swing in August 2024, April and June last year.
This price marked the lower side of the descending triangle pattern. Its upper side connects the highest swings in March 2024, December 2024, and September.
The token remains below all moving averages and the Supertrend indicator. It has also dropped below the Strong, Pivot and Reverse levels of the Murrey Math Lines tool.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is that the Avalanche price continues to fall as sellers target the next psychological level at $10. A drop below that price will likely indicate further downside over time.
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