BlockBeats news, on January 15, Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article titled "Frowny Cloud":
Although its price increase was not as significant as that of gold, Bitcoin's performance in 2025 was actually entirely in line with expectations. It did exactly what it was supposed to do.
Bitcoin's poor performance in 2025 is entirely a liquidity story—it fell in line with the decline in U.S. dollar liquidity. Meanwhile, gold and the Nasdaq managed to rise against the trend because they are driven by stronger non-liquidity factors (sovereign de-dollarization + quasi-nationalization of AI). However, if U.S. dollar liquidity expands significantly in 2026 as expected (Fed restarting money printing + commercial banks strategically increasing lending + real estate re-leveraging), then when Bitcoin rebounds, it will do so very strongly.
Its current assessment is that Trump will aggressively boost credit to "heat up the economy." A super-hot economy would help the Republicans in the re-election campaign in November this year, and the expansion of the U.S. dollar credit is expected to occur through the following ways:
· The Fed's balance sheet expands again (money printing)
Commercial banks are heavily lending to "strategic industries."
· Mortgage rates fell because of money printing.