Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin to Reach $126,000 Amid AI and Geopolitical Factors

ChainCatcher report: In his latest article, "The Butterfly Touch," BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes states that the cryptocurrency bull market was officially launched following the U.S. military strike against Iran on February 28, 2026. Bitcoin, which hit a low of $60,000 earlier this year, is now "inevitable" to rebound to $126,000, driven by the imminent release of trillions in U.S. dollar and RMB liquidity. Hayes anticipates that after breaking above $90,000, the rally will accelerate sharply. He identifies three structural factors driving unchecked expansion of fiat credit: • AI capital expenditure race: The U.S. and China view AI dominance as central to national security, forcing the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China to ease financial conditions to support the massive CAPEX of tech giants; combined with the “Jevons Paradox” and the “Red Queen Effect,” AI spending will grow exponentially. • War-driven inflation: The U.S.-Iran conflict exposes global supply chains’ dependence on U.S. hegemony, prompting sovereign nations to gradually divest from dollar-denominated assets and shift toward infrastructure, defense, and commodity reserves—compelling the U.S. to maintain market stability through dollar swap lines and relaxed banking regulations (e.g., eSLR). • Political will: Ahead of the 2028 U.S. election, the Trump administration must sustain voter support through loose credit policies, aligning the “Drill, baby, drill” agenda with the S&P 500’s push toward 10,000 points.