BlockBeats News: On January 15, according to CoinDesk, Ark Invest analyst and portfolio manager David Puell stated that the next phase of Bitcoin's development will no longer primarily depend on whether investors "believe" in the asset, but rather on how much exposure they are willing to allocate and through which investment tools they choose to participate. With the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and the rapid development of digital asset treasury strategies, Bitcoin has crossed an important threshold and entered a stage of institutional maturity.
The combined holdings of ETFs and digital asset treasuries have now reached approximately 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, significantly exceeding expectations. This has become one of the key drivers influencing price trends in 2025, and this trend is likely to continue into 2026. As ETFs and corporate treasuries absorb more Bitcoin than anticipated, the market is entering a more institutionalized phase characterized by lower volatility.
Ark Invest remains confident in its long-term valuation framework for Bitcoin. According to Ark's published valuation model, its price prediction for Bitcoin in 2030 is as follows: "approximately $300,000 in a bear market scenario, approximately $710,000 in a base case scenario, and approximately $1.5 million in a bull market scenario." David Puell stated that, driven by the "digital gold" narrative and institutional adoption, the company still expects Bitcoin to reach between $300,000 and $1.5 million by 2030.
David Puell said that as volatility declines and drawdowns narrow, Bitcoin could become increasingly attractive to investors with lower risk tolerance in the next cycle.