April 21 Market Summary: Nasdaq’s 13-Day Rally Ends, Russell 2000 Reaches Record High

Author: Shenchao TechFlow

At Monday's close, the S&P 500 fell 0.24% to 7,109.14, ending a five-day winning streak. The Nasdaq dropped 0.26% to 24,404.39, bringing an end to its longest consecutive 13-day rally since 1992. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained nearly flat, slipping just 4.87 points to 49,442.56.

But the most interesting story isn't in the large caps—it's in the small caps. The Russell 2000 rose 0.58% to 2,792.96, setting a new all-time closing high and also reaching a new intraday record.

This divergence indicates what? After a two-week surge, large-cap tech stocks are showing signs of fatigue: Meta fell 2.6%, Tesla dropped 2%, Alphabet declined 1.2%, and Broadcom slid 1.7%. However, capital hasn’t exited the market—it has rotated into small-cap, financial, and cyclical stocks. JPMorgan rose 2.2%, and Salesforce gained 2.3%. This is a healthy signal: the market is rotating sectors at elevated levels, rather than retreating broadly.

David Wagner of Aptus Capital said something that may define the current market sentiment: "For the market, the Iran war is already in the rearview mirror."

Scott Welch, Chief Investment Officer at Certuity, offered a more nuanced perspective: "The S&P wasn't cheap even before the war; the recent rally has merely brought us back to where we were at the start of the year. Investors will soon refocus on more fundamental issues—valuation, earnings outlook, inflation, the economy, the labor market, and Fed policy."

35 S&P 500 components hit 52-week highs on Monday, with individual stock strength continuing even on down days.

Another major event today: Warsh’s hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. As Trump’s nominee for the next Fed Chair, his statements on monetary policy will directly influence market pricing of potential rate cuts or hikes. (Note: This report was finalized while the hearing was still ongoing.)

WTI rose about 6% during Monday’s trading session, driven by the U.S. military’s seizure of an Iranian cargo ship and the re-closure of the strait.

Rebounded from $82.59 last Friday to around $88. But相比之下: two weeks ago, oil prices were still at $116. From $116 down to $82 and then rebounding to $88, the war premium has been squeezed out by approximately 25%, even accounting for today's rebound.

The core contradiction remains unchanged: the U.S. blocks Iranian ports, while Iran controls passage through the strait—dual blockades still persist. Last Friday’s 9.4% plunge in oil prices reflected the market pricing in "peace is coming," while today’s 6% rebound reminds the market that peace has not yet arrived, due to the ship seizure incident.

The ceasefire expires tomorrow. If it is not extended, Trump says "the bombs will start flying." If the Iranian delegation actually goes to Islamabad for the second round of talks, the ceasefire will likely be extended in some form. Oil prices are currently finding equilibrium between these two scenarios, and $82–$95 may become the new range over the coming weeks.

Gold prices are near $4,813, down from $4,879 last Friday.

The ship detention incident theoretically supports gold (due to rising geopolitical risks), but last Friday’s sharp rally (+1.48% to around $4,880) has already partially priced in this risk. Gold is currently trading in the $4,800–$4,880 range, awaiting direction from tomorrow’s deadline for the ceasefire.

The Walsh hearing is another key event today. If he signals a more dovish stance on monetary policy than Powell—as the market generally expects, with greater openness to rate cuts—gold could gain additional upward momentum. If his remarks turn hawkish, the $4,800 support level may be tested.

Bitcoin is near $76,000.

Despite triple pressures—U.S. military seizure of an Iranian cargo ship, the strait closing again, and the ceasefire expiring tomorrow—BTC’s decline was under 2%, a resilience repeatedly proven by the market. From a drop from $85,000 in late February to $65,000, followed by a rebound above $75,000, BTC has already priced in a full "war cycle."

The core pricing logic for crypto assets in today’s market has shifted from "geopolitical fear" to "macroeconomic expectations." The assumption embedded in BTC’s position above $74,000 is that a ceasefire will persist in some form, oil prices will not return above $100, inflation data will improve over the coming months, and the Fed will ultimately cut interest rates.

If these assumptions are overturned tomorrow—ceasefire expires, war resumes, and oil prices surge—BTC could quickly retest $70,000 or even $67,000. However, if Iran truly goes to Islamabad for a second round of talks, the market will interpret this as "the end of war is merely a matter of time," and BTC could surge toward $78,000–$80,000.

An interesting observation: The Russell 2000 hit a new all-time high today, which is typically a sign of strong U.S. economic fundamentals. Small-cap stocks are far more sensitive to the U.S. domestic economy than large-cap tech stocks; the Russell’s new high suggests the market believes the U.S. economy can withstand the impacts of war and high oil prices. This is also a positive signal for the crypto market, as it reduces the probability of the tail risk chain: "recession → liquidity crisis → crypto crash."

On April 21, the last full trading day before the ceasefire expired, the market sought balance between the ship seizure incident and expectations of peace talks:

U.S. stocks: The S&P dipped 0.24% to 7,109, ending a 13-day winning streak for the Nasdaq. However, the Russell 2000 hit a new all-time high, indicating capital rotation, not withdrawal.

Oil prices: WTI rebounded 6% from $82 to around $88, driven by ship seizures and the strait’s renewed closure. The war premium has been squeezed out by 25%, but tomorrow’s developments will determine everything.

Gold: $4,813. Holding position ahead of the ceasefire expiration and the Warsh hearing.

Cryptocurrency: The market has shifted from "geopolitical fear pricing" to "macroeconomic expectation pricing."

Tomorrow’s question is very simple: Will the ceasefire continue?

If the trend continues: oil prices continue to decline, the S&P moves toward 7,200, and BTC pushes toward 80,000.

If not renewed: Trump says "the bombs are starting to fly," oil prices return to $100+, and markets erase all of last week's gains.

Aptus Capital says "the war is already in the rearview mirror," but things in the rearview mirror can sometimes suddenly come rushing ahead.