Odaily Planet Daily reports: Ilya Spivak, Global Macro Head at Tastylive, said the next market catalyst is likely to come from the inflation data itself. Economists expect the U.S. February headline CPI year-over-year to come in at 2.4%, and the core CPI year-over-year at 2.5%. However, beneath the surface of the data, a key risk is beginning to emerge. A major driver of January’s CPI data was the declining contribution of energy prices to overall inflation. Given that oil prices began rising at the start of 2026, replicating this scenario appears extremely unlikely. Regardless of what this implies for the energy component in February’s CPI, traders will closely monitor whether core price growth—particularly in services—continues its modest decline. This could fuel hopes that inflation is normalizing following de-escalation in the Middle East, helping to calm market nerves. If not, fragile financial markets may again experience “risk-off” volatility, as investors confront the prospect of interest rates remaining elevated for longer. This would signal a challenging outlook for equities, bonds, and currencies outside the U.S. dollar. (Jin10)
Analyst Warns of Hidden Risks Beneath U.S. Inflation Data; Traders to Monitor Core Services
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Summary
February inflation data is expected to show U.S. overall CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year. Tastylive’s Ilya Spivak warns that energy prices, which helped dampen January’s inflation, may not repeat that trend in 2026. Traders will focus on core services inflation, as any slowdown could alleviate fears of further rate hikes. A lack of progress may trigger renewed volatility, particularly in key altcoins, as markets prepare for extended high rates and a strong dollar.
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