Analyst Predicts XRP Surge as Bitcoin Dominance Drops

Analyst Dark Defender believes the next major move for XRP could coincide with a historic collapse in Bitcoin dominance.

He reached this conclusion after drawing parallels to XRP’s explosive 2017 rally. In a recent post, Dark Defender pointed to historical cycles where XRP surged as Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market capitalization declined.

He believes Bitcoin’s dominance “will fall like never before,” urging investors to be ready for what XRP could do in the second leg.

According to the analyst’s chart, XRP’s massive 2017 run occurred during a sharp decline in Bitcoin dominance, from around 95% in February 2017 to as low as 37% by January 2018.

As capital rotated out of Bitcoin and into altcoins, XRP experienced a parabolic surge that ultimately pushed it to its all-time high. During this period, XRP’s price surged more than 70,000%, from $0.0055 to $3.84.

Dark Defender now suggests a similar setup may be forming. His projection outlines a potential multi-wave decline in BTC dominance into 2026. He sees XRP positioned to benefit from this shift, ushering in its second phase of price expansion.

Notably, XRP has already recorded a more than 600% price surge this cycle, moving from $0.49 to $3.66. However, during that period, Bitcoin’s dominance did not fall dramatically.

Now, market watchers like Dark Defender believe the next phase could coincide with a meaningful drop in Bitcoin dominance.

The idea is simple: when Bitcoin dominance falls, liquidity often flows into altcoins. Historically, XRP has been one of the primary beneficiaries during such rotations.

Several XRP proponents have expanded on this thesis by highlighting search data trends. Community member Diana noted that Google searches for “Bitcoin is dead” have reached their highest level since the collapse of FTX.

She used this observation to suggest that interest in Bitcoin has weakened and that XRP could gain ground.

Another commenter, Investorie, echoed the sentiment, arguing that whenever global interest in Bitcoin fades, XRP has historically gained relative strength.

Even prominent Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor recently reaffirmed his ultra-bullish stance on Bitcoin, stating it is “not going to zero; it’s going to a million”. Some XRP supporters interpret such strong defenses as a response to weakening retail interest in BTC.

The bullish outlook comes as XRP trades nearly 70% below its 2025 peak of $3.66, around $1.30. Recent on-chain data from Santiment shows XRP recorded approximately $908 million in realized losses, marking its largest weekly spike since 2022.

The previous comparable event saw roughly $1.93 billion in realized losses and was followed by a 114% rally over the next eight months.

Large realized losses represent a phase in which fearful investors exit positions at a loss. Historically, such emotional extremes have marked market bottoms, though they do not guarantee immediate reversals.

Interestingly, Diana floated the possibility of a 1200% rally if capital rotates from Bitcoin into XRP, as it did in previous cycles. However, such projections are speculative and would require massive inflows.

Meanwhile, not all comments are supportive. Sam, CEO of MyWayCarpet.com, argues that times have changed and that using a 2017 chart to predict future outcomes is “nonsense.”

He added that he liquidated his XRP holdings at $3, while Dark Defender continues calling for higher prices even as they dip further.

Diffrent times. You’re comparing different timelines. This is nonsense. I sold at 3.0936. I’ve been telling everyone to do the same thing while you’ve been calling higher highs… Jesus

— SamTheCarpetMan® (@SamTheCarpetMan) February 23, 2026