BlockBeats news: On February 17, crypto market analyst Axel posted on social media that this bear market cycle began from the all-time high of approximately $125,000 in October 2025—a conclusion confirmed by the Entity-Adjusted Liveliness indicator, which reached its cycle peak of 0.02676 in December 2025, exhibiting a typical lag behind price and now showing a downward reversal.
Historically, such reversals have typically initiated an accumulation phase lasting between 1.1 and 2.5 years. The previous two accumulation cycles are clearly visible on the chart: the 2020 bear market lasted 1.1 years, and the 2022–2024 bear market lasted 2.5 years. Both began in exactly the same way—the green line reversed from its peak and entered a sustained downward phase, with price following suit. The current pattern is structurally identical.
If historical patterns repeat, this accumulation phase will last at least until the end of 2026, with a more realistic expectation extending to mid-2027. The key confirmation signal is a downward reversal of the 90-day moving average crossing below the 365-day moving average at 0.02622. Before this crossover occurs, the possibility of a mid-cycle reset and resumption of the upward trend remains.