A fresh technical outlook is suggesting that XRP may be heading for a steep near-term correction after losing a key support level amid recent volatility.
In this view, the asset, which is struggling to hold the $1.30 support, could drop by 33% before a broader recovery attempt, according to insights by CasiTrades in an X post on April 2.
The analyst noted that the break below the $1.31 support marked a clear shift in momentum, opening the door to accelerated downside. XRP has slipped out of a tightening structure, with descending trendlines and bearish wave formations pointing to continued selling pressure.
At the same time, the Fibonacci-based projections place the next key downside target between $1.05 and $1.09, aligning with the macro 0.786 retracement and the completion of a third sub-wave in the current bearish sequence.
The structure reflects a strong impulsive move lower, backed by rising downside momentum and weakening support levels.
A temporary relief rally is expected to follow, with a fourth-wave correction potentially pushing XRP toward $1.27. However, the broader trend remains bearish, suggesting any rebound will likely be short-lived.
XRP next low target
The final leg of the correction could drive XRP toward $0.87, near the 0.854 retracement level and a historically strong demand zone that may act as a floor once the structure completes.
Momentum indicators, including a weakening RSI below mid-range levels, reinforce the bearish outlook, alongside broken support and sustained downward channel formations.
This outlook comes at a period when XRP has struggled since the start of 2026, aligning with broader market sentiment. The asset has dropped nearly 25% year-to-date, hitting lows around $1.16 in early February before recovering briefly to $1.60 in mid-March, while losing about $30 billion over the period.
The token remains well below its July 2025 all-time high of around $3.65, down roughly 60% from that peak.
XRP price analysis
By press time, XRP was trading at $1.32, having dropped about 0.25% in the last 24 hours, while on the weekly timeline, the asset is down almost 1.7%.
At the current price, XRP is trading below both its key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at $1.42 and the 200-day SMA at $2.06.
This positioning reflects sustained bearish pressure, as the asset remains under short- and long-term trend lines, signaling a lack of bullish momentum and a broader downtrend still in control.
Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at 39.25, placing it in neutral territory but leaning toward the oversold side. This suggests that while selling pressure has been dominant, the asset is not yet deeply oversold, leaving room for further downside before a stronger technical bounce becomes likely.