Analyst: On-chain prediction market fees may be underestimated; Kalshi’s 30-day revenue likely $110M

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On-chain analysis by analyst dash on X suggests Kalshi’s 30-day revenue likely reached $110 million. Based on on-chain data and fee structure, taker trades indicate $118 million in fees. With Robinhood-style estimates, nominal trading volume reached $110 billion. On-chain data also reveals that prediction market fees are underestimated, as platforms like DefiLlama overlook share-based fees. Polymarket and Predict.fun fees increased by approximately 80% and 40%, respectively.

Odaily Planet Daily reports: In response to Parity’s previously released ranking of prediction market revenues, crypto analyst dash posted on X that Kalshi’s data is likely accurate. Based on its fee structure and publicly available taker trade data, its fees amount to approximately $118 million. If trading is conducted via Robinhood, a 1% estimate of notional value is reasonable, giving Kalshi a notional trading volume of $11 billion over the past 30 days.

In addition, on-chain prediction market fees are currently underestimated, as platforms like DefiLlama primarily track fees denominated in USD or stablecoins, overlooking fees paid in shares. When these share-based fees are included, the actual fees for platforms such as Polymarket, predict.fun, and Limitless increase significantly—predict.fun by approximately 40% and Polymarket by approximately 80%.

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