Odaily Planet Daily report: Analyst Jukan from Citrini posted on X that KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae expects SK Hynix’s operating profit for the second quarter of 2026 to be 60.4 trillion Korean won, representing a 61% sequential increase and a 556% year-over-year growth, which is 8% below the market consensus of 65 trillion Korean won.
Analysts stated that the downward revision is primarily due to SK Hynix's higher sales mix of HBM compared to peers, lower-than-expected price increases for general DRAM, and long-term supply agreements (LTAs) stabilizing ASP (average selling price). The forecast for the quarter-over-quarter growth rate of combined DRAM ASP in Q2 2026 has been lowered to 28.9%, down from 50.0%; the forecast for commodity DRAM ASP growth has been reduced to 34.2%, down from 60.6%. With mass production of HBM4 set to begin in Q3 2026, the combined ASP growth rate is expected to return to the market-average quarterly rate of approximately 10%.
However, the analyst believes this adjustment is not a sign of industry decline; the recent revision reflects a more realistic outlook for the 3- to 5-year LTA structure and is expected to lead to more stable long-term profit growth, with operating profit year-over-year growth rates of 419%, 53%, and 19% for fiscal years 2026 to 2028, respectively.